Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Just A Thought


Could it be that neither Justin or Trista know what happened to Ayla, or where she is? Is it possible that family members took the situation into their own hands, thinking they knew what was best for Ayla?

Justin could have told all he really knows about that night. Courtney Roberts was down in the basement with her son and Justin. What better time to take Ayla to someone that would provide for her, and love her.

Could someone in the Di Pietro Family have loved Ayla so much to take matters into their own hands? Could they do this knowing they would never be able to have any contact with Ayla? They would have to remain silent even to other family members.

Where was Phoebe really that night? Could Elisha have been in on it scheme? Could two people do this and never tell another soul? Could Trista have suspected Elisha in this, thus the question where is she Elisha? Could this be why Phoebe and Elisha lawyer-ed up so soon?

Could Phoebe have came back early that morning? While everyone else slept, entered the home taken Ayla and left? Could it be Phoebe did this alone and Elisha doesn't know anything? Could this be what made Gabby fussy and Elisha just cuddled her close, and went back to sleep?

Could all the suspected blood evidence actually not be blood? Could the evidence at the dam have been planted to throw suspicion away from this line of thought?

Could they know that Justin wouldn't be prosecuted because they know he did nothing wrong? Could this be why Justin wanted immunity for the person responsible if they returned Ayla?

How many times have you seen a child mistreated and said to yourself that child should be taken away  before it is seriously hurt? How many times have you said they shouldn't have that child, it should be with someone that would love and provide for it?

The previous post by Oaklandrez has given me a lot to think about.
To what extremes would you be willing to go to, in order to save a child you loved?



117 comments:

  1. Excellent post Dana....all VERY good questions

    Oaklandrez

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    1. Thanks to you Oaklandrez. Your post inspired it. Can't wait to read your next one.

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    2. Why have my last three comments on this post been removed? There wasn't anything even remotely offensive in what I wrote.

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    3. Thank you, Dana for putting them back up. Have a great day.

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    4. Rose I found out what happened but not why. I could have saved c and p from my email, if I would have looked in spam 1st. They were sent to spam automatically I don't know why, computer hiccup I guess.

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    5. Dana, I wanted to ask you if you discovered why my three comments were deleted in the first place? I saw each one posted on here after I hit the publish button; shortly after the comment disappeared. Thank you for your help.

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    6. Welcome Rose I wish it worked as well on the real spam.lol

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  2. OT - sort of...

    You know what I find interesting? The fact that Jeff and Trista could be preparing to tell their biggest lie yet...and Obscure/JustStopTheLies is nowhere in sight. How is that possible? You'd think she/he would at least make an appearance to give us their thoughts, you know?

    Curiouser and curiouser...

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    Replies
    1. I had wondered about that too even if what Trista says is true.

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    2. You know what I find the most curious of all, NOT one real protest or rebuttal of this theory so far, I figured there would be a few but I'm really surprised that other than the minor DNA rebuttal, there are none....maybe it hasn't hit anyone yet?????

      Oaklandrez

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    3. Maybe they are just ignoring us, which is better than attacking because they don't agree, or think it possible.

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    4. Maybe Obscure isn't as far away, or quiet as some think. ??

      As for the DNA evidence having come from something other than blood, ..I'm not confinced that it couldn't have and didn't.
      I'm not disputing that DNA coming from sources other than blood is hard to find, and may be destroyed by bacteria.
      I'm not disputing that *most* labs don't even try to process samples from feces, urine or vomit.
      However, I can't help but consider Bourget's words that the DNA samples were not necessarily from blood.

      I would hope that in an investigation like this that the best and most extensive lab test were done. Maybe even utilizing the FBI lab and it's technicians.
      It is also possible IMO that some of the test could have been inconclusive.

      I'm not saying that the DNA came from other things besides blood. Just that I can't rule it out, without hearing more facts about the DNA evidence.

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  3. Dana,

    Nice post, with a lot of great questions, and thinks to think about.

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  4. Oaklandrez deserves the credit for getting me thinking. You know a lot of people don't really know how Maine people react to situations. Phoebe very well could have seen something she didn't approve of in the care for Ayla. It is pretty hard to convict someone of a wrongful death if one didn't happen. Phoebe would know that especially being close to someone in DHHS. They don't even have enough evidence to name a person of interest, So Oaks theory is a possibility right now. Phoebe sons aren't afraid of LE if they didn't do anything wrong, and if they did they know LE has to prove it.

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  5. In a word no. If this were the case, LE wouldn't be saying Ayla is dead.

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    Replies
    1. I thought they said they didn't think she would be found alive.

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    2. anon 649 no one is trying to convince you, your opinion is just as good as any other.

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  6. Looking At The FactsAugust 28, 2013 at 7:21 PM

    Oaklandrez and Dana's posts have helped me put on my thinking cap as to what else may be the key. Things I thought at the beginning. I will work on writing it up this weekend to submit. Mckee would love to see a post from you and also Foil if you are up to it.

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  7. That will be great LATF Mckee you know I would enjoy a post from you and Foil. Its getting exciting.

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  8. I completely understand Dana, that you want to believe that Ayla was whisked away by a concerned relative and she is being loved and cared for. I would love to be able to believe that it is a possibility. Unfortunately, I don't. First and foremost, I cannot ignore the blood evidence. Secondly, I cannot find even one excuse for Justin's lack of calling out for his daughter, Ayla. I just hope that Ayla finally receives justice soon.

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  9. LATF I think a post from you would be just as thought provoking as these last 2 posts. I have seen many comments about how none of us "Justin supporters" (which I am NOT, I support the TRUTH) could come up with a theory that is viable or that takes the evidence into account. I think in the last 2 days that has happened and that's why no one has charged in here beating up this theory. Again, I don't think I'm completely right, there are definitely a few things about this theory that don't quite fit, but I think that stranger things have happened than this.....

    All the other talk and speculation ties this up all nice and tidy, a little too nice and tidy, if you know what I mean....makes me think it's all wrong. If someone in Justin's immediate family took Ayla and gave her to a good family, that would explain why no one unusual's fingerprints or DNA were found,or why there was nothing disturbed by the window of the room Ayla was in, why she never cried out....

    What lengths would a parent, like Phoebe, go to for their children? Look at the mom in Texas that tried to have her daughter's rival on the local high school cheering squad killed...people do some pretty fucked up things....

    Oaklandrez

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    1. So for whom is Phoebe doing all this savior stuff? If indeed she did? For Ayla? For Justin? For herself? Why not just give Ayla back to Trista if Justin is not such a hot father?

      She maintains that Justin is a good father and a good parent so what is Phoebe's beef with him keeping Ayla? Or maybe it's Elisha;s beef. Maybe Elisha is doing most of the care for Ayla when Justin is out doing whatever he does.

      Now we know how the DiPietros feel about Trista, but nothing ever happened to Ayla under Trista's care that we know of. Does Phoebe know something we don't? Possibly, but then why not bring this up in a custody hearing?

      Perhaps Phoebe rescuing Ayla from both her parents sends a strong message: my son is as much a horrible excuse for a dad as Trista is a mother. Does Phoebe act like a mother who sees any fault in her son? Recall that in the rainey-day fall on Ayla, his mother said she was more worried about Justin than Ayla.

      Nah, not buying this theory.

      I would more likely buy the theory that Phoebe gave/ sold off Ayla to somebody for money with the agreement of Justin in the bargain. Except there seems to be too many others involved in this give away and that may be splitting the prophets and/or incurring the danger that someone will talk down the road.

      Lastly, I would think that having Ayla, who is going to provide Justin with state finanical aid, benefits, etc. (which Trista is receiving, now), if he wins custody, might be a great incentive for keeping Ayla, not giving her away! She could have been a cash cow for Justin.

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    2. First, I NEVER said for sure it was Phoebe, for all we know it could have been Lance that did this....he certainly seemed to love Ayla...

      next, do you personally know any member of the Dipietro family? If not there is NO way you can speak as to their personalities or who they are as people...you only see snippets in the news and read rumors on a blog

      last, no one asked you to believe this theory or is trying to change your mind....just sharing MY THOUGHTS

      Oaklandrez

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  10. If Ayla were given away for (misguided) humanitarian reasons or sold for (unconscionable)pecuniary gain, the DiPietros would keep the baby in need of protection or the "merchandise" in good condition. Major blood loss seems to undercut those theories.

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    1. We do NOT have any confirmation from MSP as to MAJOR blood loss, so at this point, this theory is just as good as any other....

      Oaklanrez

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    2. What would you settle for as being "major blood loss"?

      LE did say that the blood found "was troubling", was Ayla's and was in amounts "more than a cut could produce"

      No explanation of any of Ayla's blood being shed has been given by this family such as "Ayla was prone to nosebleeds" and "Ayla stumbled and split her lip." And naturally no explanation was given like "Ayla fell down the stairs and cut her head."

      Didn't Justin say at one point, perhaps it was Heidi speaking for him, that Gabby and Ayla liked to play on the stairs leading down to the basement? Don't ask me to find the source, because I would not be able to, but I remember Justin said it somewhere or through someone.

      In fact that is my theory: Ayla fell or was pushed down those stairs. Maybe breaking that gate that no one wants to talk about. The one that Justin supposedly bounded over and broke when he came rushing up the stairs to find his daughter "missing".

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    3. MSP stated that they found SOME of Ayla's blood and that it was troubling, to ME that says that the fact they found blood was troubling, not how much...the "more than a small cut would produce" I'm pretty sure was actually stated by Jeff/Trista, not MSP, but Im not going to look for the link because I won't find it....

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    4. Anonymous 10:05 AM, I had the same thoughts after reading Angela's first draft which had the part about the baby gate. Pressure mounted baby gates should never be used at or near the top of stairs. A gate that was put up every morning, as Angela described, was a pressure mounted gate--not installed with hardware.

      http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/safety-gates/buying-guide.htm

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    5. Anonymous 10:12 a.m.

      You're correct.
      The "more than a small cut would produce" was first stated by Jeff/Trista on Aylareynolds.com.
      It was NOT confirmed by MSP.

      I think the wording in a news article has caused the confusion.
      McCausland said when ask about the announcement on Ayla Reynolds.com: That yes SOME of Ayla's blood was found, but more testing needed to be done. He did not like to give out partial results.

      I believe that MSP told the maternal family "it was more than a small cut would produce."
      ..(Maybe even the more than a cupful- which wasn't revealed until March, oddly)?
      Why though? This was early in the investigation. Were they looking at reactions? Was it an investigative ploy? Did they want Trista to confront Justin with this,..to guage his reaction?

      I have to go with what McCausland has said. At *the same time* the family was revealing the "more than a small cut". 1/28- 1/30.
      McCausland would only say that some of Ayla's blood was found, and more testing needed to be done.
      I don't think at that time they knew how much of Ayla's blood was in the home.

      We really honestly do not know for sure how much blood of Ayla's was found in the home. That at this point.

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    6. “The testing has not been completed and more work remains, but we have found samples of Ayla’s blood,” Steve McCausland, spokesman for the state Department of Public Safety, said Sunday night. A day earlier, police had confirmed the discovery of the blood during a search of the home’s basement in December, shortly after Ayla disappeared.

      McCausland’s statement followed the disclosure earlier Sunday on aylareynolds.com, a website maintained by Ayla’s maternal family in Portland, that the blood was Ayla’s. The site also said that Maine State Police told the family the quantity of blood was “more than a small cut would produce.”

      McCausland wouldn’t comment Sunday night on the amount of blood discovered.

      The family contended on the website that state police shared the blood test results with them, but planned to withhold the information from the media.

      McCausland said police had initially decided not to report that the blood belonged to Ayla because police needed to perform tests on other samples.
      “I prefer not to give out partial results, but (the Reynolds) family has released that tonight, and that information is correct,” he said.

      http://www.pressherald.com/news/Aylas-blood-found-in-DiPietro-home-family-website-says.html?pageType=mobile&id=1
      _____________________________________

      McCanna should have reported this better, because it is open to interpretation.

      But as I read it, McCausland is only confirming that samples of Ayla’s blood was found. He is not confirming the “more than a small cut would produce.”

      To this very day, McCausland refuses to comment on a blood amount.

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    7. Thanks McKee I appreciate you finding the article I was referencing.

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    8. Thank you Anon 1 and mckeekitty! I was just going to comment on this subject, but you two have it covered!

      The amount of Ayla's "blood found" seems to be the catalyst for Ayla being dead, even though it is all hearsay.

      signed:getrealpeople

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  11. Hmmm.... cash cow, anonymous @ 7:39? Just how much cash do you bring in for a child welfare-wise? And where can I sign up? Darn this work ethic of mine.

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    1. I was thinking the same thing.
      I bet if you ask someone receiving the benefits they wouldn't have the same thoughts.

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    2. Hey, don't you know, you get tons of money if you're on welfare, especially with kids! What a life, why don't we just all quit our jobs? Why are we working when we could be making more on welfare! LOL

      signed:getrealpeople

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  12. MSP would not have a mother believe their child were deceased unless they had hard proof of this. . . it would be heartless and hateful. . . they have to have strong evidence to have said this to Trista. I go with the belief that it was an accident and it was too late to get help, hence the kidnapping theory. JMO I think lots of people will be leaning this way once Trista speaks.

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    1. MSP could have an entire family believe such a thing, especially if they got it all wrong from the get go and don't know it yet...evidence can be interpreted differently by different people...look at the case of those women in Ohio, one of them, police told her mother that she ran away and come to find out 10 years later she was being held by that sicko and repeatedly raped and beaten....ANYTHING is possible

      Oaklandrez

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    2. I agree with you, Anonymous 10:10. The blood evidence, and Justin's silence over the last sixteen months does not support the hypothesis given in the last two posts, in my opinion.

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    3. Again, none of the things that you refer to have been confirmed BY MSP...so this hypothesis is valid UNTIL MSP confirms the rumors and speculation that has been released by the maternal family...when MSP says that enough blood was found for them to believe Ayla passed then I will concede that point but NOT when it is not confirmed, until then it is just rumor and speculation, just like the speculation having to do with Courtney's sister......ALL RUMOR nothing confirmed!!

      Oaklandrez

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    4. The blood evidence and Justin's silence is not rumor. The fact that the Maine State Police held a major press conference which addressed their belief that it is highly unlikely that Ayla will be found alive is not rumor or speculation. The fact that the Maine State Police have never retracted their belief that an abduction did not occur, and that the three in the home when Ayla disappeared have not been forthcoming with information related to Ayla's disappearance (paraphrased by me) is not rumor or speculation. McCausland confirmed that Ayla's blood was found in the home, and Justin's silence over the last sixteen months is pretty apparent to the public. Those two things are what I addressed in my comment. My opinion is that your hypothesis has no merit or support. There is no reason for you to get upset, Oaklandrez. Nothing in my comment was offensive. Thank you.

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    5. Hi Rose,

      For some reason, LE won't name a suspect or suspects.

      At the PC, McCausland listed reasons why they believe Ayla is deceased. He made NO mention of blood. Yes...he mentioned "evidence" and he specified the dives and searches. And yet we've been told the water searches yielded two blankets that Trista could not identify.

      Does it bother me that Justin plays deaf, dumb, and mute? Sure it does. It bothers me that ALL those in the home that night don't talk. But I cannot ascribe guilt based upon keeping silent. You may feel comfortable doing so, but I do not.

      I believe there is more to this case than meets the eye. I believe the DiPietros would be asked by LE to stick close to home if the noose was tightening.

      JMO.

      As always, wishing you well.

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    6. I most certainly am not getting upset, I am having a civilized discussion. I don't believe that blood evidence is concrete as far as "more than a cupful" or anything other than there was blood found and "some of that blood was Ayla's". My point is that MSP has NEVER confirmed the actual amount of blood nor have they stated that the blood indicated a life threatening wound....anything to that effect has been speculated and rumored on other blog sites and somehow has migrated into Ayla lost enough blood to have passed. I do not trust anything reported by Jeff, Trista or anyone other than MSP because there have been too many retractions, clarifications, etc, that includes Angela at TLLOM. You may feel that my theory has no merit but that is not necessarily the case as all of the actual facts that are sited (everywhere) are not actually facts, they are things that have NOT been confirmed by a credible source.

      Oaklandrez

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    7. Again, read my comment Oaklandrez. I did not address the alleged amount of blood, or any of the innuendos or speculation presented. You response to my comment did come across as upset to me (with the caps and exclamation points). Therefore, I chose to respond. If i misunderstood your response, I apologize.

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    8. Hi Mckeekitty. Actually, McCausland did mention the blood at the press conference. I will find the unedited full press conference latter when I have time and find the part where he mentions the blood evidence. It has not uncommon for law enforcement in other missing person cases not to reveal a suspect or suspects prior to an arrest being made. I have to run now, but I will try to check in later. I wish you well, too!

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    9. Meant 'later'.....

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    10. Rose City,

      Respectfully meant,
      You can find the full May 31 press conference on Youtube.
      I listened to it again a couple weeks ago.
      I'm positive that McCausland made no mention of blood at all.

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    11. I will listen to it again later when I am at home, Anonymous 1. I could from my cell phone, but it is a hassle. Thanks.

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    12. Rose, I did re-read your comment and it appears that we disagree on the blood evidence. I do concede that MSP has said that some of Ayla's blood was found, however they did not in any way state how much of her blood was found nor have they stated that it was a life threatening amount, so in my opinion the blood evidence is part fact part rumor, fact that some of her blood was found, rumor as to how much blood they actually found. As far as the Dipietro silence, I don't like their silence any more than the next person and I can't imagine a logical reason for the silence, however I can't convict him just on his silence alone. I do understand this case winds us all up and sometimes there are hurt feeling as we take each other wrong, etc and I apologize if I came off in anyway that was construed as angry or upset....I enjoy a healthy debate :)

      Have a good night Rose

      Oaklandrez

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    13. mckeekitty, although my initial statement was not made in the context of the 05/31/12 press conference: "McCausland confirmed that Ayla's blood was found in the home, and Justin's silence over the last sixteen months is pretty apparent to the public," I did assert in response to your reply post that McCausland mentioned the blood at the press conference--my apologies. Actually the question of Ayla's blood was asked by an unnamed individual.

      He asked: "Did the amount of blood discovered at 29 Violette Avenue play in (?not sure, inaudible) today's decision?

      McCausland replied:

      "Again, ah, that's an investigative question. We're not going to get into specifics,.... ummm,..that..... We're not going to get into the specifics of that, of what was found, and how that played in the decision that we've now arrived at and are announcing today. It's a culmination of everything--the evidence, the searches, and the fact that it's been 166 days."

      Again, I apologize. I last listened to the May 31, 2012 press conference in June of 2012. If you have a chance though, I do recommending watching and listening to it again. My opinion is that in both his body language and the verbal way he answered the question, (stumbling and halting in his response), McCausland was definitely caught a bit off guard in how to answer it. One thing is clear to me; he was very adamant about not discussing the sepcific evidence at all. I can understand why that would be an investigative detail that he wouldn't want to discuss. But, that is just my impression.

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    14. Hey, Rose!

      Thanks for the clarification.

      I think we have all been caught getting a detail wrong in this complicated case.

      Appreciate you reexamining the PC and posting your findings.



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    15. Rose City,
      I appreciate you coming back and relaying your findings as well.
      I also agree with your assessment & impression of McCausland.

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    16. Rose City, Oregon, No offense meant, but I don't think Oaklandrez was saying anything to "upset" you. Oaklandrez put three words in caps! I believe we all use exclamation points, caps, whatever...to express our feelings, after all, we are typing words on a blog!

      I would, however, like to discuss why McCausland says that not all of the blood is Ayla's, Did Justin murder someone else? Do you believe Trista's story of her tryst with Justin while on her period. (By the way, it took several months after McCausland's statement for Jeff/Trista to release that. Why the wait? Same thing when they searched the dam area in May, suddenly...Trista had been asking about these items (supposedly found) since Ayla disappeared.)

      This is the oddest case I've ever seen!

      signed:getrealpeople

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  13. There really is no comparison to the Ohio story here. Ayla was a helpless baby we can take the theory of running away off the table. I believe the police found enough blood to make the statement that Ayla couldn't have survived the blood loss that they found. Why have the W3 not explained the blood? Why did Justin bolt out of the PD once shown this evidence? IMO the only reason no arrest has been made is because there were 3 adults there one of them or all of them know what happened but as is their right they are keeping quiet, if the police can't prove which one did the damage they can't make an arrest. Doesn't mean that a crime didn't take place. . . time will tell. Ayla deserves so much better . . . Im sure as Courtney has posted on her facebook, "It's hard to dance with the devil on your back" Kind of an odd thing to post when you are in this situation. . . is she trying to tell us something? I think so.

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    1. I suppose you are correct that there is no comparison IF I had stated that Ayla had run away, however what I was referencing was the fact that police had told the mother of one of the kidnap victims that she had gone missing because she had run away which was an incorrect conclusion that the police made based on the evidence they had...so my point essentially was that police officers are human just like the rest of us and can make critical mistakes that can make a situation worse, hence the 10 years that poor woman spent in captivity all because police didn't look for her as diligently because they thought she was just another runaway.

      Oaklandrez

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    2. I believe the Ohio girl had tried to run away times before.

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  14. Is she referring to Justin. . . . the devil????? Makes sense to me.

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    1. It's all in perception I guess.
      IMO she very well could be referring to all the gossip, rumor, and hateful innuendo spread by people commenting on this case.

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  15. I forgot to mention one thing, Oaklandrez. You presented a hypothesis and not a theory. Your hypothesis is in fact not valid unless it is both testable and refutable (falsifiable). You simply came up with an idea that you have presented, but you have not shown anything to support it. That is quite different than what the MSP has presented; their theory that Ayla is not likely to be found alive began with an hypothesis that was then--after a forensic investigation--supported by the evidence that they found. Their theory stands until there is evidence found to dispute it.

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    1. The definition of theory is "the analysis of a set of facts in their relation to one another"
      The definition of hypothesis is "a tentative assumption made in order to draw out and test its logical or empirical consequences"

      Either definition could fit this at this time as I was using the facts that we have been given by MSP, not the facts that have not been confirmed by MSP and I was using a tentative assumption to come to my conclusion.

      at any rate this is semantics...
      I can agree to disagree and that is ok

      Oaklandrez

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    2. Too funny, Oak! No need for anyone to split hairs over hypothesis vs. theory.

      I do know this...Rose City cares deeply for Ayla. I do not agree with Rose's conclusions or her methods in reaching them, but I do know she is a fellow truth seeker.

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    3. I suggest that you research the scientific method which is the accepted, "gold standard" of what an hypothesis or theory is. That is not a matter of semantics or disagreement.

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    4. Thank you, mckeekitty for your kind words. For the record, I don't believe that whatever physical harm came to Ayla was an intentional act.

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    5. Rose City, Oregon, Why does it matter if it is a hypothesis or a theory? Neither one of them are fact!

      signed:getrealpeople

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    6. getrealpeople, if you don't understand why the difference between an hypothesis and theory is significant, I am not going to be the one to explain it to you. Have a nice day.

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    7. Anyway, as my teacher and favorite philosopher once told me: "It's more important to be kind than it is to be smart."
      --Dr. Peter Boghossian

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    8. Excuse me "Rose City, Oregon" , you're the one that doesn't understand why the difference between an hypothesis and theory is significant.(?)

      You do not seem to understand that a theory is not fact. You can hypothesize to prove or disprove a theory. Neither outcome makes the theory fact!

      signed:getrealpeople

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    9. getrealpeople, I missed your last comment. Please read for comprehension, and kindly show me where I ever stated that a theory is a fact. Those were words that you used. The difference between a hypothesis, theory, and a fact is certainly significant. Anyway, I choose not to engage with you; you have a tendency to viciously insult people, and I personally find it offensive and unnecessary. If you knew anything about me, you would not attack my knowledge. In another comment you mentioned logic, and I almost responded. However, I let it go. I realized that it would be fruitless to discuss logic with you. Perhaps you're wonderful face-to-face, but that is irrelevant. I choose not to engage with you. Have a good day.

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    10. Rose I was notified of your comment by email, and when I went to read it , I found it in spam again. I am sorry and don't know why this is happening. I retrieved it however and will keep an eye on it. Again I apologize for the error.

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    11. I have to say Rose you along with GRP made me curious enough to check the definition's. Next I guess I will have to read what they have for examples, my head is gonna hurt I just know it.lol



      Definition of HYPOTHESIS
      1
      a : an assumption or concession made for the sake of argument
      b : an interpretation of a practical situation or condition taken as the ground for action
      2
      : a tentative assumption made in order to draw out and test its logical or empirical consequences
      3
      : the antecedent clause of a conditional statement

      the·o·ry (th-r, thîr)
      n. pl. the·o·ries
      1. A set of statements or principles devised to explain a group of facts or phenomena, especially one that has been repeatedly tested or is widely accepted and can be used to make predictions about natural phenomena.
      2. The branch of a science or art consisting of its explanatory statements, accepted principles, and methods of analysis, as opposed to practice: a fine musician who had never studied theory.
      3. A set of theorems that constitute a systematic view of a branch of mathematics.
      4. Abstract reasoning; speculation: a decision based on experience rather than theory.
      5. A belief or principle that guides action or assists comprehension or judgment: staked out the house on the theory that criminals usually return to the scene of the crime.
      6. An assumption based on limited information or knowledge; a conjecture.

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    12. I knew this was going to hurt I need aspirin. I am done researching for a week.

      What Is a Theory?
      Answer:

      The term theory is used with surprising frequency in everyday language. It is often used in to mean a guess, hunch or supposition. You may even hear people dismiss certain information because it is "only a theory." It is important to note as you study psychology and other scientific topics, that a theory in science is not the same as the colloquial use of the term.

      A theory is a based upon a hypothesis and backed by evidence. A theory presents a concept or idea that is testable. In science, a theory is not merely a guess. A theory is a fact-based framework for describing a phenomenon. In psychology, theories are used to provide a model for understanding human thoughts, emotions and behaviors.

      A psychological theory has two key components: (1) it must describe a behavior and (2) make predictions about future behaviors.
      Theory Examples

      Throughout psychology's history, a number of different theories have been proposed to explain and predict various aspects of human behavior. Some of these theories have stood the test of time and remain well-accepted today. Others have not held up under close scientific scrutiny, and may have been rejected altogether or only partially accepted by researchers today.

      Examples of Hypothesis

      A hypothesis is an educated guess or proposition that attempts to explain a set of facts or natural phenomenon. It is used mostly in the field of science, where the scientific method is used to test it.
      Testing Hypothesis vs. Tested Hypothesis

      An hypothesis can be testing a concept or it can be developed as a result of study:

      A testing hypothesis is one that can be tested, meaning you can measure both what is being done (variables) and the outcome.
      A tested hypothesis is tested with research, such as in a research study in social science.

      Here are some examples of both testing hypotheses and hypotheses tested with research:
      Testing Hypotheses

      If the water faucet is opened, then the amount of water flowing will increase.
      If fenders are placed on a bicycle, then the user will stay dry when going through puddles.
      If a prisoner learns a work skill while in jail, then he is less likely to commit a crime when he is released.
      If I raise the temperature of a cup of water, then the amount of sugar that can be dissolved in it will be increased.
      If the size of the molecules is related to the rate of diffusion as they pass through a membrane, then smaller molecules will flow through at a higher rate.
      If there is a relation between the wave length of light and the photosynthesis rate, then light of different colors will cause the plant to make different amounts of oxygen.
      If temperature is related to the rate of metabolism in animals, then raising the ambient temperature will cause an increase in animal metabolism.


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    13. Dana, thank you for retrieving my comment from spam. My references to hypotheses and theories was based on the scientific method, not the colloquial use of the term. Because the circumstances of Ayla's disappearance and law enforcement's consensus that Ayla is "highly unlikely to be found alive" were obviously made as a result of an investigation which included forensics, my use of the before mentioned terms was from a scientific context.

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    14. Thanks for spiking my interest, you must be very educated, I only wish I had taken school more serious instead of being a class clown. Now it is harder for me but maybe it will make me stronger.

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    15. Dana, for example, this comment seems to combine the colloquial use of the term "theory" with the scientific use of the term "hypothesis":

      "You can hypothesize to prove or disprove a theory. Neither outcome makes the theory fact!"

      Not to be derogatory, but this way of thinking is simply inaccurate.

      1) Start with an observation.

      2) Formulate a hypothesis.

      3) Test the hypothesis by experimentation. (That is what I meant when I stated that an hypothesis must be testable and falsifiable to be valid).

      4) The results of an experiment may confirm the hypothesis or hypothesis' to be valid, it may need to be modified and retested, or simply discarded.

      5) A hypothesis or a set of hypothesis' must undergo repeated testing before it can be classified as a theory.

      6) A theory is a well-tested finding that has been supported with evidence. It is not just mere speculation as the colloquial use of the term suggests.

      *Of course, if new evidence arises to disapprove a theory, it can be replaced (after going through rigorous testing as described) with a new and better theory.

      Note: That is why in a previous comment I stated: "Their theory stands until there is evidence found to dispute it."

      This is in very simple, layman's terms (from my own brain). If you need any textbook, verified and quoted information, please let me know. I did not extract my information from the internet. It is "verifiable", LOL!

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    16. I understand your comment I think. So LE has the theory Alya will not be found alive, am I correct stating that?

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    17. Hi Dana. Yes, under the proper, scientific use of the term, theory.

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    18. Rose : So the idea of a kidnapping is actually only a hypothesis because there is not enough evidence and testing available to make it a theory?

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    19. Sort of sounds like the only way a kidnapping will become an actual theory is if someone starts to talk that was there, or the person confesses.

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    20. Dana, a person's idea or suggestion that a kidnapping occurred would be an untested hypothesis. A person's idea or suggestion that a member of Ayla's paternal or maternal family secreted Ayla somewhere would be an untested hypothesis. Regarding Ayla's paternal family's and friends' contention that Ayla was kidnapped, I am not aware whether or not a private investigator was employed on their behalf to formulate a valid (testable and falsifiable) hypothesis that such an event occurred.

      The Maine State Police's contention that Ayla was not abducted or kidnapped was more likely than not based on the evidence they found (or lack of). Whether or not they tested anything (such as the windows or doors), I can not state with certainty because I have not been privy to their investigation. They have seemed quite matter-of-fact after the first week of Ayla's disappearance that such an event di not happen though.

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    21. Rose I read in an article that they did remove a window from the home..Thanks for being so patient with me and explaining these things to me.
      http://www.kjonline.com/news/foul-play-now-suspected_2011-12-30.html

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    22. Hi Dana. You are always welcome. I know that you are in this for Ayla and want justice for her. I do remember that they removed the window, but I didn't want to make statements about that aspect of the investigation since I have not read many of the early articles in several months. Thank you for providing the link; now I don't have to look for it:).

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    23. Rose: Jazzie posted a few links last night and I copied them all to a folder so I could read them. I didn't read a lot of the articles and just commented on what people said. Thus a lot of my posts are the way they are in question form. I stopped trying to learn when I hit the 6th grade, they passed me on to get rid of me and I quit my sophomore year. So I don't know the true meaning to a lot of words. So I have to go to the dictionary then sometimes I don't apply them correctly.I think that is why our first encounter I lashed out at you because I didn't understand. Actually I have a tender heart though.

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    24. Dana said,
      I have a tender heart though

      ...That's VERY evident Dana.
      I think most of the people who are commenting on Ayla's case has a tender heart. That's why they are still around. Even the ones that I disagree with.

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    25. And Dana, never sell yourself short.
      What's important in life doesn't depend on someone's education level.
      You are a great and wonderful asset to Ayla.
      You happen to display a LOT of common sense.
      Personally, I wouldn't have you any other way than what you are.

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    26. Thanks anon 1 Maybe that was the plan for me from the beginning of time.I am glad to be here for Ayla and I have meet some very nice understanding people.

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    27. Dana, there isn't any need to be apologetic. You are very intelligent--much more so than you give yourself credit for. It is really sad that nobody stepped up to the plate for you in your middle school (or junior high) years. The typical, mainstream school doesn't accommodate the many different "languages" of children, unfortunately. Intelligence is much more than just academics. My husband experienced some of the same in his early school years during the sixties; he was labeled dyslexic and placed with special needs students who were mentally handicapped. He ended up being the one who would beat up the bullies who would torment the special needs students. Growing up in the Philippines, (biological mother was Filipino and biological father Irish), with red hair and white skin, he attended an American school. The American kids called him vicious names, spit on him, and as a gang they would beat him up. The Filipino kids were the complete opposite of the Americans. That went on until he learned how to fight back. That is a long story though. The end result was that he became known as someone not to pick a fight with, and that reputation carried him through his move to the states in 1970, his service in the USMC in Vietnam, and to this day. He is not the type to just brutally beat someone up, but he will stand up to bullies who hurt those that are smaller, at an unfair disadvantage, or anyone that would be stupid enough to pick a fight with him. Off topic, sorry.

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    28. Thanks for being kind and understanding Rose. Your husband sounds like a nice man.

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  16. I thought this was an Ayla Reynolds support group....seems to me it's becoming more like Charla's juststopthelies group. I don't care who is running the group anymore but lately these post as guest are apprehensible and misleading. All these what if Scenerios truly don't bring anything positive in finding Ayla. If Phoebe and Justin truly didn't have anything to do with Ayla disappearing ....then why haven't they been out looking for her? Why? I say Ayla whether dead or alive needs to be found. Trista God willing will see Justice for Ayla

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    Replies
    1. And pray tell what are you doing to bring anything positive in finding Ayla? How do you know what the family has or hasn't done? Could it be they are doing things you don't know about, or is that impossible because you feel you know everything? We are saying Ayla needs to be found also, only we don't limit the looking only for a corpse.

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    2. "I thought this was an Ayla Reynolds support group"

      ...We are, we're known as Ayla's pulse.


      "All these what if Scenerios truly don't bring anything positive in finding Ayla."

      ...I wholeheartedly disagree.
      They are creating a lot of dialogue about Ayla, which brings awareness to and about her. That is a VERY positive outcome.

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    3. Ap.pre.hen.si.ble - capable of being understood or perceived.

      huh!

      signed;getrealpeople

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  17. "...but lately these post as guest are apprehensible and misleading."
    _______

    Who are we trying to apprehend?

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  18. I guess they are trying to say our scenarios are capable of being comprehended. Unless they meant a different word than apprehensible.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mckee I get in trouble when I try to use words with more than 4 letters. I had to look it up.

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    2. being honest gets me into trouble a lot.

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    3. We do all we can to keep Aylas name out there and people get upset at us because their favorite web site shuts down. Unbelievable but understandable.

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    4. She probably meant to type "reprehensible". Could any of you get her meaning from context? Hell no!

      Is this a bastion of grammar, spelling, semantics and syntax on this site? Or is it supposed to be an open discussion on Ayla's fate, whatever that might be?

      I think you all got the meaning of her post. You may have chosen, though, to make fun of it in your ever so subtle way because you didn't agree with it.

      I did not write it, btw, but I understood what she was saying.

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    5. Ok and that is fine but when whoever comes on in attack mode it is hard to figure.

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    6. "Is this a bastion of grammar, spelling, semantics and syntax on this site?"

      Now there's a word I had to look up,...bastion.
      The answer is no, we are not a bastion of grammar, spelling, etc..
      This is born out by reading the comments here. There is spelling and grammar mistakes made every day, and many times. Rarely, if ever, are they brought to attention. I don't remember seeing it before. ??
      Actually I think the replies were made more in humor more than anything else.

      My perception, the comment was an attack and it was addressed in humor.

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    7. That was the reasoning in my response, it is the best way to halt a hate filled argument. I could have come back with nasty accusations but what would it solve,nothing and talk for Ayla would be distracted.

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    8. Anon 6:54 writes:

      "I did not write it, btw, but I understood what she was saying."
      ______________________

      Interesting...where did Homelesshelp reveal a gender identity in the post?

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    9. You have just proved my point, McKee Kitty. Anything for an argument, even if it includes something like perception of gender. Again, you get the meaning; you choose to be one of the parsing snobs.Have fun!

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  19. In getting custody of Ayla, Justin would not have been having to pay child support. Added to the benefits, which are not so small (look up what Courtney is receiving for Aden...it's quite a tidy package. I looked up what single parents get in the atate of Maine. No wonder Maine is so poor.

    Added to the benefits he would receive for being the main caretaker for Ayla, he would he would be off the hook for paying child support to Trista or to the state, however that works in Maine.

    And here's the big whoopee: Trista would have to be paying HIM, or the state, (again, however Maine does it). Yay!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have heard of it working that way, she would of had to pay the state.

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    2. So you are off the main point, right?

      There are lots of benefits for single parents in Maine.

      Courtney gets alling through college. The state provides allowances for a home, plus food stamps, and free medical care unto eternity. I believe the state will also find the single parent a job in her chosen field. Maine is the prime example of the nanny state, whether one agrees with the program or not. Why should not Justin also take advantage of the system...that is, if he could get custody of Ayla?

      Phoebe lived on the largesse of the state or taxpayers until the state finally insisted that she must go to school and get a job and schooling ws provided for her. Then the state got her a job, and helped pay for her house. She knew it was important for Justin to get Ayla...possession being nine-tenths of the law in many cases.

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    3. As far as benefits go for single parents in Maine:

      I once was a single parent. I received welfare, housing assistance, food stamps, etc. It is no way to live. I was broke all of the time. Never had money but my child always had food, clothing, & a roof over their head.
      I sometimes didn't eat so my child could. We didn't get enough food stamps to cover food & the welfare was pitiful.

      We are success story though. Haven't needed or wanted welfare since 10 + years ago. I now own my own home & have a somewhat successful life.

      Welfare is no walk in the park.

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    4. Anonymous 7:09

      I think these benefits are available to single parents in almost all of our states.
      Let me ask, do you believe these benefits are the reasons for all single parents to seek legal custody of their child?

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    5. Child support depends on what the other parent earns. I really don't believe that you can live off the state with welfare for one child (also, see anonymous August 29, 2013 at 8:46 PM)!

      This is all besides the point that Courtney is going to college and holds down a job. Why are you Justin haters against this? Trista doesn't even have a job. How much money is she getting from the state? She must be living the good life!

      And, what really do we know about Phoebe? So, the state helped her go to school and get a job, and be self-sufficient for herself and children. What a horrible thing for the state to do!!!

      Why don't you talk about Trista? What is she doing with her life, other than creating babies and living off the state. Why doesn't she have to get a job? Would you think it wrong if the state helped her to get an education and/or a job?

      signed:getrealpeople

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    6. GRP: I'm sure Trista is in the same boat as many other people who are facing the limits on their cash assistance from the state. She's not exempt from rules just because her daughter is missing. She should be working towards an education or job, no doubt.

      At the same time, I don't find talking about Trista and what she's doing with her life, "other than creating babies and living off the state," to be even remotely relevant to the question of what happened to Ayla.

      Ayla didn't disappear while that wicked, welfare woman had her under her care, did she? What would Trista gain financially from her daughter disappearing? You seem to be so concerned with the money Trista might be receiving from the state so perhaps you could explain why disappearing her child would make sense.

      The crucification of Trista for being on welfare is morally convenient for people who wish to look down upon her for her lot in life, I guess. But there for the grace of God, goes you or I.

      -Scout

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    7. At the same time, I don't find talking about Trista and what she's doing with her life, "other than creating babies and living off the state," to be even remotely relevant to the question of what happened to Ayla.
      -----------------------------
      I disagree. The timeline cited the stress of being a single mom with 2 children as the reason for Trista becoming drunk and having an altercation with Jessica. Was she stressed when Justin said he was going to file for custody? Trista says she was fighting constantly with Justin during this time. Could that have had anything to do with Ayla disappearing?

      Trista once again is raising two children. Trista's long time friend posted about domestic violence while Trista was pregnant. Is there a pattern there?

      Please understand, I'm not trying to "crucify" Trista. You mention her "lot in life." It's within Trista's power to change her lot if she wants to. That's supposed to be the purpose of welfare. It's my wish that she would see that she doesn't have to be stuck in a cycle of poverty, addiction, violence, and helplessness.

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    8. AnonymousAugust 30, 2013 at 9:02 AM, good post.

      So, Scout, you find it "okay" to talk about Justin paying child support vs living off the state?

      signed:getrealpeople

      Delete
  20. I am not crucifying Trista for being on welfare. I was trying to make a point that Maine is very liberal in its benefits to single parents.

    Why wouldn't Justin or his mom be eager for Justin to receive those existing benefits instead of Trista? Especially Phoebe, who would most likely be paying for Ayla's support. As far as we know, Justin doesn't have a job. He may work under-the-table, but does he have a known occupation? He was going to be a truck driver, but did that ever come to fruition? I think he is unemployed.

    If Justin were the custodial parent, he would receive benefits for himself and Ayla. He and his mother both would be anxious that he be relieved of having to pay Maine child support for Ayla. It only makes sense that custody of Ayla would have relieved Phoebe and Justin of a great expense. That's why they kept her, and didn't return her.IMO. "cash cow" I admit was a bit harsh in referring to Ayla. Let's say she would have been a monetary boone to an unemployed dad.

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    Replies
    1. Maybe he kept her because Trista wasn't able to care for Ayla properly at that time, and money had nothing to do with it.

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    2. Yes, this is an argument which often arises that the DiPietros could not let Ayla stay in such an unwholesome atmosphere as Trista and her multiple problems. An atmophhere under such a terrible caretaker was too much for Ayla's health and welfare. Yet, it does appear Trista never lost her child.

      Why aren't the DiPietros looking for this abducted child? One idea presented here is that Justin, his mother, or Lance gave Ayla away to a better life.

      They know she's safe with a loving, caring, and perhaps rich young couple who were so anxious to have a child that they couldn't wait to obtain one legally through the state, or legal private adoption with their lawyer involved. Oh, wait. Could they have been a different type of couple out for a blonde blue-eyed doll?

      And this thery explains the DiPietros lack of concern for an abducted child. At least one DiPietro knows she is okay and "adjusting".

      Did you think that Ayla's mother would have sought to give her away? Do you think that is why the DiPietros obtained Ayla? To give her away? They must be more of an altruistic bunch that I gave them credit for. Or more greedy than one imagines.

      "Let's give Ayla a better life!" Yep, that must be what happened. It explains why Justin wasn't too much for the plan and said in public, "You may think you are doing what's right for Ayla, but you are not her parent...blah and blah." He knows who took her but it's all for the best in the long run? "And the truth will come out when the time is right."

      Yes, when Ayla graduates from high school, daddy's princess will look up the her real pa on Violette Ave.(he'll still be there?) and thank him for putting her interests first over his obvious love for her. Ah, the truth coms out at last! Justin is a wonderful dad!

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    3. Yet, it does appear Trista never lost her child.
      ----
      On the contrary, that's exactly what she claims happened. Remember Justin "stealing" Ayla away from Lewiston? Trista was so distraught that she, she...wait a minute...what did she do? Oh yes, she made a couple phone calls to DHHS and then agreed to let the "kidnapper" keep Ayla. Because she thought that was the safest place for Ayla to be.

      Or maybe that story's not so true after all and Trista wanted Justin to have Ayla from the beginning and was afraid to tell her family.

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    4. "Why wouldn't Justin or his mom be eager for Justin to receive those existing benefits instead of Trista? Especially Phoebe, who would most likely be paying for Ayla's support. As far as we know, Justin doesn't have a job. He may work under-the-table, but does he have a known occupation? "
      __________________________________

      Maybe... because Phoebe can take care of herself, and her children if need be.

      Who is this "we" that knows Justin doesn't have a job?

      The last sentence in my quote from you (anon), doesn't make any sense to me.

      So I have to ask, why would they get rid of Ayla with this "cash cow" in keeping her? He can't receive these benefits you speak of, if Ayla is gone! And he never received them!

      signed:getrealpeople

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    5. I don't recognize my statement GRPeople. I think you may have misquoted.

      I'd like to ask what you believe happened to Ayla. I don't believe you've ever said in all this time. Most of your posts here and on Charla's have been directed against Trista and aimed at defending Justin.

      Are you a personal friend of the lad? It would be so interesting to read your thoughts about Ayla's disappearance as a friend of the family, so to speak.

      Let's forget that you can't abide Trista and her lifestyle...let's leave her out of it just for once. What do you think happened to Ayla?

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