A condition in which a subject can safely and believably deny knowledge of any particular truth that may exist because the subject is deliberately made unaware of said truth so as to benefit or shield the subject from any responsibility associated through the knowledge of such truth.
The CIA black ops division undertakes dangerous and usually what would be considered illegal missions that are not officially sanctioned by the US administration so that the administration, which usually benefits from such missions, can safely disavows any knowledge of them in the event of their publicly uncovered success or failure. The administration is in the position of plausible deniability towards the CIA's actions
Taken from Urban Dictionary
One of the biggest factors for people who are on the fence about what to believe about what happened to Ayla Reynolds is that it seems absolutely impossible that 3-5 people could possibly have kept a secret this big for so long, especially when 3 out of those possible 5 people have a child of their own to worry about. You know what they say... Only two can keep a secret, if one of them is dead.
How is it that Justin, Elisha, and Courtney and possibly Phoebe and Derek could all be in on what happened to Ayla and not one person has said a word to anyone else about it, haven't broken down after being interrogated by police, haven't made a deal and spilled what really happened in order to save themselves? It just doesn't seem feasible to me and apparently to many others who flip flop back and forth as what they think happened to Ayla that night.
The only way that this makes any sense to me is if only Justin and possibly Courtney know what really happened to Ayla and although Phoebe, Elisha, and Derek may suspect in the backs of their minds that Ayla met with foul play they would have nothing to give police to save themselves or make a deal because they were purposely kept out of the true details of what happened. The scenario could also work if it were Justin and possibly Elisha but would Elisha sacrifice her own freedom and leave Gabby without a mother to help cover up the death of her niece in order to help her brother? I don't think Elisha would and I think deep down Elisha may suspect Justin did something, hence the comment Lance purportedly made to Bob Vear that Elisha asked him if he thought Justin did something to Ayla.
(This information was leaked on another blog from a private email between Bob and I. The emails have since been deleted and I am not comfortable bringing Bob back into this other than to mention this one detail.)
As far as we know the only other two people in the home that night were Justin and Courtney. Phoebe wasn't there and according to LE had an alibi that night so she also has plausible deniability. I don't know how Derek fits into this but I also don't see Derek publicly standing behind Justin and defending his character if he knew for a fact that Justin or Courtney harmed Ayla and they were covering for it. Derek has a small child of his own and I think would consider his own family more important than getting involved in a situation that could rip him away from his own family. He may suspect something or he may not and truly believe Justin's story but I don't think Derek is involved in anyway except selling Justin a life insurance policy that I feel has nothing to do with Ayla's disappearance and was just an unfortunate circumstance for Derek and for Justin considering that Ayla is now missing. Lance was supposedly working at the Pub that night until 2am and has never been mentioned as being in the house that night or one of the three who police believe are not telling the whole truth.
This leaves me with Justin and Courtney. If Courtney accidentally harmed Ayla, I can see Justin not wanting her to get in trouble especially if he is in love with her, she has a small child of her own who would be motherless, and is in school trying to better herself and her life. Courtney claims though that she didn't see Ayla that night but according to what info Jeff got from MSP, Courtney arrived at the house at 8pm and was left with the children downstairs in the basement while Justin ran out to get some wine. If she really didn't see Ayla that night then whatever happened to her happened before she arrived at 8pm but wouldn't she become suspicious of Justin when he told police she watched the children while he ran to the store? Would Courtney risk her future, her child, her career, and her freedom to cover for Justin? If they are both in on it together how does one know that the other won't sell them out and make a deal and if so why hasn't one of them yet? Is their relationship that strong after only being together just a few months prior to Ayla going missing that they would go as far as covering up the death of a child? Was Justin the sole perpetrator and gave everyone around him only tidbits of info so that if anyone was ever arrested for Ayla's disappearance no one would really know anything that could be used against him?
The only other scenario that actually makes any sense is that Ayla really was abducted and police screwed up big time in the beginning and announced that they believed Ayla was not abducted and had met with foul play. If she was abducted though, what about the blood?