Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Plausible Deniability

PLAUSIBLE DENIABILITY  

A condition in which a subject can safely and believably deny knowledge of any particular truth that may exist because the subject is deliberately made unaware of said truth so as to benefit or shield the subject from any responsibility associated through the knowledge of such truth.
 
The CIA black ops division undertakes dangerous and usually what would be considered illegal missions that are not officially sanctioned by the US administration so that the administration, which usually benefits from such missions, can safely disavows any knowledge of them in the event of their publicly uncovered success or failure. The administration is in the position of plausible deniability towards the CIA's actions
 
Taken from Urban Dictionary
 
 
 
One of the biggest factors for people who are on the fence about what to believe about what happened to Ayla Reynolds is that it seems absolutely impossible that 3-5 people could possibly have kept a secret this big for so long, especially when 3 out of those possible 5 people have a child of their own to worry about. You know what they say... Only two can keep a secret, if one of them is dead.
 
How is it that Justin, Elisha, and Courtney and possibly Phoebe and Derek could all be in on what happened to Ayla and not one person has said a word to anyone else about it, haven't broken down after being interrogated by police, haven't made a deal and spilled what really happened in order to save themselves? It just doesn't seem feasible to me and apparently to many others who flip flop back and forth as what they think happened to Ayla that night.
 

 
 
The only way that this makes any sense to me is if only Justin and possibly Courtney know what really happened to Ayla and although Phoebe, Elisha, and Derek may suspect in the backs of their minds that Ayla met with foul play they would have nothing to give police to save themselves or make a deal because they were purposely kept out of the true details of what happened. The scenario could also work if it were Justin and possibly Elisha but would Elisha sacrifice her own freedom and leave Gabby without a mother to help cover up the death of her niece in order to help her brother? I don't think Elisha would and I think deep down Elisha may suspect Justin did something, hence the comment Lance purportedly made to Bob Vear that Elisha asked him if he thought Justin did something to Ayla.
 
(This information was leaked on another blog from a private email between Bob and I. The emails have since been deleted and I am not comfortable bringing Bob back into this other than to mention this one detail.)



 
As far as we know the only other two people in the home that night were Justin and Courtney. Phoebe wasn't there and according to LE had an alibi that night so she also has plausible deniability. I don't know how Derek fits into this but I also don't see Derek publicly standing behind Justin and defending his character if he knew for a fact that Justin or Courtney harmed Ayla and they were covering for it. Derek has a small child of his own and I think would consider his own family more important than getting involved in a situation that could rip him away from his own family. He may suspect something or he may not and truly believe Justin's story but I don't think Derek is involved in anyway except selling Justin a life insurance policy that I feel has nothing to do with Ayla's disappearance and was just an unfortunate circumstance for Derek and for Justin considering that Ayla is now missing. Lance was supposedly working at the Pub that night until 2am and has never been mentioned as being in the house that night or one of the three who police believe are not telling the whole truth.
 
This leaves me with Justin and Courtney. If Courtney accidentally harmed Ayla, I can see Justin not wanting her to get in trouble especially if he is in love with her, she has a small child of her own who would be motherless, and is in school trying to better herself and her life. Courtney claims though that she didn't see Ayla that night but according to what info Jeff got from MSP, Courtney arrived at the house at 8pm and was left with the children downstairs in the basement while Justin ran out to get some wine. If she really didn't see Ayla that night then whatever happened to her happened before she arrived at 8pm but wouldn't she become suspicious of Justin when he told police she watched the children while he ran to the store? Would Courtney risk her future, her child, her career, and her freedom to cover for Justin? If they are both in on it together how does one know that the other won't sell them out and make a deal and if so why hasn't one of them yet? Is their relationship that strong after only being together just a few months prior to Ayla going missing that they would go as far as covering up the death of a child? Was Justin the sole perpetrator and gave everyone around him only tidbits of info so that if anyone was ever arrested for Ayla's disappearance no one would really know anything that could be used against him?
 
The only other scenario that actually makes any sense is that Ayla really was abducted and police screwed up big time in the beginning and announced that they believed Ayla was not abducted and had met with foul play. If she was abducted though, what about the blood?

54 comments:

  1. Very good points Tori! I think any of these theories are quite plausable. I also agree that the LIP was and is a red herring. I dont believe Derek or his family know anything but Justins story. I have said that I believe MSP screwed up in the past for sure. I feel Courtney knows and is definetly involved in what ever happened to Ayla. Courtney has been the most silent one and most stuck up to. From what I feel she and Drugs are a mix in this mystery. I think if Ayla was kidnapped not abducted but kidnapped her kidnapper took her and hurt her in front of said owers of drug money which would explain the disturbing amount of blood found as well as justins statement when the time is right, also they could have threatened them and scared them to lie to LE. But im rambling about my own thoughts now. But just some general ideas...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When you consider what you have said Ashley, suppose Justin didn't fall on Ayla and break her arm. The drug dealer could have done it to make his point, and Justin took the blame so no one would know. So as to make sure they didn't go to the police they came back and did whatever to Ayla to guarantee no one talks or Courtney's child is next. The dealer's would most definitely no how to make a body disappear. Fear for your life can make most anyone clam up.

      Delete
    2. Know how sorry

      Delete
    3. Dana...I respectfully think that is a reach. I think that if Ayla's arm injury was not consistent with Justin's version of events (falling on top of her), it would have been reported. I'm no doctor, but I'm sure there are signs of a "yank" or deliberate injury vs. what could be passed of as an accident.

      This high talk of "drug dealing" is hearsay. Not a single statement from LE has mentioned drugs. Yet many speculate that Ayla was collateral for a drug debt, that she overdosed, that she was killed in a drug-fueled rage, etc. I've yet to see a single link that Justin had so much as a weed seed in his possession.

      Delete
    4. I realize that just trying to figure how someone could be silent so long. I really think if they know what happened to Ayla fear for their life is the only way all could be silent. Unless only one person knows what happened.

      Delete
    5. Just musing my own thoughts mckee, I have feelings that there may have been drug dealing. I personally know and grew up with justin as did Katie do I want to believe he offed Ayla for drug debts, insurance money or killed her out of rage absolutly not. But I know without a doubt Trista is innocent. She may not be the most friendly or witty but shes not a kidnapper. Because Ayla would be with us now if she did indeed take Ayla. Trista strikes me as a person who would put herself in jail for kidnapping her own daughter as long as she could get out and be back with her daughter. Because most certainly she would have more then ample time to explain to LE why she feared for her daughters safety while being in the care of her father whi ch lead to said kidnapping if that happened.But like I stated above Courtney the silence is deafening where are u?Why hasn't she EVER NOT ONCE spoke up for Ayla, seems like most silent tend to be the most guilty in my opinion. Either that or it's just the opposite like for instance Drew Peterson, hre was such a show off and great liar he almost convinced people. He acted crazy sometimes vulgar and even somedays normal and fatherly. It's shit like these cases that make you go uhhhhh... Aylas case definetly makes me go ahhh ergghh and all the other signs for dismay and confusion.

      Delete
  2. Is it not strange that Ayla was alone in that bedroom, supposedly, when all the other toddlers were safe with mommy? Courtney and Ayden were allegedly downstairs with Justin in his basement boudoir. Yet Ayla, Justin's natural child, was left alone upstairs, having recently sufferend a broken arm.

    According to the shifting time schedules Phoebe and the rest told, Ayla was put to bed by Justin for sleep at 8:00 p.m.. Then when some outcries arose which decried a toddler with a broken arm not being checked on for twelve hours, the story was amended by additional info that Elisha took Gabby to her bed at 10:30 and presumably (this was not stated) checked on Ayla at that time.

    We don't know how Ayla was doing at 10:30, such as sleeping peacefully, or a little bit fussy, or still alive, because apart from fairly vague references to Ayla going to bed, the DiPietros have not seen fit to fill in any time schedules about other activities that evening. Just a "normal" night is all we get. A normal wherein your child gets kidnapped.

    Now, if we believe Jeff's story, which he related from LE, Justin said he left Courtney with Ayla and Ayden in the basement at 8:00 as he went to buy some wine. If this story is true, then Justin didn't put Ayla in her bed at 8:oo.

    Why have the DiPietros said nothing about that night's activities? Especially relating to Ayla.

    Oh, yes, I forgot. They owe us nothing.


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would like to think that a night where my daughter disappeared was not a "normal night".

      Apparently, they own Ayla nothing, too.

      Delete
  3. The only way 3-5 people could keep their mouths shut this long is either plausible deniability, as you say, or they are equally culpable.

    I vote for the latter.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sign me up for that, Anon 4:01. They all know what happened and are in on the cover-up which, as you say, makes them all culpable. Elisha and Courtney have each a child to lose. Even if what happened to Ayla was an accident which they all thought could not be explained as one because of other incidents on record befalling Ayla in the past. Or if one of them in the house that night lost his/her temper with Ayla and went too far in disciplining her, then the cover up makes them as guilty as the person(s) doing the deed.
      Accessories after the fact...

      Delete
    2. It could just be that Elisha doesn't know, I see her as the odd man out in this crowd. Easier for 2 people to keep a secret and then convince their family and friends they are innocent.

      Delete
  4. Groupthink

    What is Groupthink?



    Groupthink, a term coined by social psychologist Irving Janis (1972), occurs when a group makes faulty decisions because group pressures lead to a deterioration of “mental efficiency, reality testing, and moral judgment” Groups affected by groupthink ignore alternatives and tend to take irrational actions that dehumanize other groups. A group is especially vulnerable to groupthink when its members are similar in background, when the group is insulated from outside opinions, and when there are no clear rules for decision making.

    Symptoms of Groupthink

    Janis has documented eight symptoms of groupthink:

    1.) Illusion of invulnerability –Creates excessive optimism that encourages taking extreme risks.

    2.) Collective rationalization – Members discount warnings and do not reconsider their assumptions.

    3.) Belief in inherent morality – Members believe in the rightness of their cause and therefore ignore the ethical or moral consequences of their decisions.

    4.) Stereotyped views of out-groups – Negative views of “enemy” make effective responses to conflict seem unnecessary.

    5.) Direct pressure on dissenters – Members are under pressure not to express arguments against any of the group’s views.

    6.) Self-censorship – Doubts and deviations from the perceived group consensus are not expressed.

    7.) Illusion of unanimity – The majority view and judgments are assumed to be unanimous.

    8.) Self-appointed ‘mindguards’ – Members protect the group and the leader from information that is problematic or contradictory to the group’s cohesiveness, view, and/or decisions.

    Janis, Irving L. (1972). Victims of Groupthink. New York: Houghton Mifflin.

    Janis, Irving L. (1982). Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes. Second Edition. New York: Houghton Mifflin.



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I can't speak for anyone but myself, but I'm not using any groupthink. I am an independent thinker. I base all my opinions, theories and conclusions on my own observations of the information presented. I do take into consideration which way the winds blow (so to speak). I have no compulsion to be in the "majority" or the minority for that matter. I look at the evidence, I look at the MSP statements and look at what the Dipietros are NOT doing. While your "groupthink" might pertain to some, it does not pertain to me. And it IS my opinion based on what I have seen (or not seen) that the Dipietro family is hiding the truth from the MSP and the rest of us.

      Delete
    2. *** That should have said that I "DO NOT" take into consideration the way the wind blows. LOL

      Delete
    3. I wasn't posting this on Groupthink to be about you or anyone else, here. I posted because it could be the reason that 3 or 4 or more people can keep secrets in this case.

      Not everything is about you. Anon, 2:52.

      Delete
  5. Exactly my thoughts Tori. Personally I have never believed that Elisha has known what happened. I believe that either Ayla was really abducted or she came to harm in the house, (but not to the knowledge of everybody). In the latter case, someone or two people had the others believe that Ayla was truly abducted.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I don't know how many people actually know what happened to Ayla but three people keeping a secret is not unheard of. Three unrelated people kept the secret of what happened to Juliette Geurts for years, which you profiled on this blog. (http://justiceforayla.blogspot.com/2013/01/finally-juliette-geurts-may-get-justice.html)

    If their life/freedom is more important to them than the child and their life/freedom is on the line it can happen. The only reason Juliette may finally get justice is because the rest of her family pushed so hard for it. LE was going to let this fade away and wasn't going to charge anyone.

    Also consider... Lisa Irwin - Her mother and father (Jeremy knew after the fact) know what happened and I believe Deborah Bradley's brother (who I believe is the one who disposed of Lisa) does also. 3 people remaining silent for their own self preservation.
    Hailey Dunn - Mother Billie Jean and her boy toy Shawn know what happened to Hailey. I think Hailey's brother David now knows what happened (after the fact). Again 3 people remaining silent and playing cat and mouse with LE to protect themselves (David to protect his mother).

    Like I said, in Ayla's case I'm not sure who knows what but I lean toward 3 people knowing what happened. It can be and has been done before that all three keep the secret.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rose City, OregonMarch 19, 2013 at 2:17 PM

      Dee, you are absolutely correct. I mentioned the Juliette case as an example on here previously; it is an Oregon case. Another example would be the Kyron Horman case. It is widely believed that Terri Horman's BFF, Dede Spicher, was either directly involved in Kyron's disappearance, or she helped Terri after the fact. Whatever the case may be, she refuses to answer questions pertaining to anything related to Kyron. It is not surprising to me at all that three individuals, (two of them who would risk losing cutody of their minor children), would keep their mouths shut this long. It happens.

      Delete
    2. WAY OT...to Rose City.

      I caught your comment several weeks back on U4A re: Christian Longo. I am SO sorry you had a family connection to the victims (at least, that was the impression I got from your post). I studied this case over the years and followed the trial. I was stunned when I saw your post...someone who knew MaryJane, Zachary, Sadie, and Madison???? On a blog????? All I could think was, "small world."

      Anyway, I'm deeply sorry for your personal loss. It was a horrific crime.

      Delete
    3. I agree, and the easiest way to keep the secret is to not say anything, which they have done very well. Unfortunately for them, they did have to speak to police separately which is probably (one of the ways) the police determined they were not being entirely honest. Three different stories...I wish we could see the transcripts from those interviews.

      Delete
    4. I echo McKee's sentiments Rose. I also saw your post on U4A but did not get a chance to respond at the time. I am so sorry that you had a tragedy like this touch you personally. I am unfamiliar with the case but I do vaguely recognize the name Christian Longo. Again, my deepest sympathies.

      Delete
    5. Rose City, OregonMarch 19, 2013 at 8:31 PM

      Mckeekitty and Dee, thank you for your kind and thoughtful words. Yes, it is a small world. MaryJane is/was my maternal, first cousin. Her mother and mine are sisters, (my Aunt Sue passed away about nine years ago). MaryJane was three years older than me, (the third of five girls and one boy), so I was closer to her sister, Penny, since we are the same age. If you followed the trial, you probably remember Penny. Growing up, we were often mistaken for twins as we resemble each other very much. We still keep in touch. She has been a tireless advocate for her sister, nieces, and nephew. I could not attend the trial because I was living in Michigan at the time, and my due date for my second child, (son), was the date the trial was scheduled to begin.

      MaryJane was a truly wonderful mother and person--beautiful inside and out. I visit MaryJane, Zachary, Sadie Ann, and Madison's memorial in Newport, Oregon twice a year, (it's about two hours from Portland), to honor their memory. Their tragedy is as fresh in my mind today as it was eleven years ago. I never followed any of these cases prior to that. Again, thank you so much for your kind words.

      Delete
    6. I'd add Phoebe DiPietro to the list of the people who know what happened to that precious child. I think Lance may have discovered the truth, too. Derek probably believes whatever Peachy tells him. Angela and heidu, too, of course. It is easier that way.

      Delete
    7. OT...To Rose City, Oregon. I only vaguely recognized the name Christian Longo so I read up on your cousins case today. All I can say is OMG. How horrific. You know, they're wrong when they say time heals all wounds. It never heals. But hopefully the time that has passed and knowing your cousin and her kids received justice brings some peace.

      Delete
    8. Rose City, OregonMarch 20, 2013 at 5:05 PM

      Hi Dee,
      Thank you, again. You are absolutely correct--it never heals. I think about how bad it makes me feel, and then I feel guilty because I can only imagine what my cousin Penny, her sisters, and brother feel to lose their sister, nieces, and nephews. Although we did receive some form of justice, Longo continues to cause pain to my family through the media, his letters to Penny and Sally, and through the writer, Michael Finkel, who continues to give him a voice, unfortunately. Longo is a malignant narcissist, (sociopathic narcissist), and it is all about him. Now, the last I heard, Finkel sold his rights to his book, and Brad Pitt is producing a movie based on Finkel's book. It is sick, and the victims' family has no say in the matter. Oh well. As long as Longo is alive, he will continue his torment I am sure.

      Delete
    9. Rose City, OregonMarch 20, 2013 at 5:40 PM

      Oops....."nephew".....

      Delete
    10. Oh God, Rose. I didn't even want to bring these issues up regarding the media's love affair with Longo. I knew they must be very painful for the survivors.

      I am guilty of reading "True Story" by Finkel (I did, however, borrow it from the library so I don't believe I lined anyone's pocket).

      I was mortified to learn of the upcoming movie starring Brad Pitt. I PROMISE not to watch it, even when it is available at the library!

      And this "organ donation" project that Longo and Finkel have launched is clearly an attempt to spare Longo's life. Hey...I'm an organ donor, but the point is that what Longo and Finkel are doing is pure and simple manipulation to keep Longo (and Finkel) in the limelight.

      I'm so sorry that the media is fueling Longo's narcissism. It is a travesty.

      Again, I'm so sorry for the loss your family has suffered.

      Delete
    11. Rose City, OregonMarch 20, 2013 at 9:08 PM

      Mckeekitty, don't feel guilty at all! I bought the book as soon as it was released, simply because at the time my family members were still wanting to know what exactly had happened the night/morning of MaryJane, Zachary, Sadie Ann, and Madision Jeanne's deaths. Because Longo, (until relatively recently), never truly admitted exactly what happened, what he did regarding Zachary and Sadie, or even taking responsibility for Zachary and Sadie's deaths, we were desperate for ANY information that might be found in that book. Longo's courtroom antics and "story" were obviously a lie. Unfortunately, Finkel only alluded to what had happened in his book, (Longo's "dream"), from his meetings with Longo. I did not even know, until a few years ago when my daughter, now sixteen told me, that she had found the book in our house and read it herself secretly.

      I would not hold it against you if you watch the movie. I won't be, but a good friend of mine admitted to me that she will because of her interest psychopathology. She apologized she feels so bad about it.

      It is truly disgusting what Finkel is supporting. He should truly be ashamed of himself making millions, (from selling his book rights), in the memory of an innocent mother, and her three babies.

      Delete
    12. Honestly, I fell off my chair when I saw your comment on U4A re: Longo, Rose. I followed the case via The Oregonian online so many moons ago.

      There is no doubt that Jordan Criado took notes from Longo. I'm sure you know about this recent case...another Oregon nightmare. Criado made the same claim as Longo...that Tabasha murdered their four children, and he killed her in a rage for murdering their children.

      In my eyes, that makes Longo just as dangerous in prison as free. And Finkel is no doubt making a handsome sum.

      Thanks for the absolution, Rose. I know we don't always see eye-to-eye on Ayla's case, but I have a deeper understanding of your position.

      Delete
    13. Rose City, OregonMarch 21, 2013 at 1:08 AM

      Mckeekitty, yes, I agree with you about the Criado case. I do remember when that happened--the murder of his wife and four children--but haven't followed the case. I just looked it up. Yes, Longo is very dangerous. He apparently was a doting father and husband too. Longo didn't have any previous history of violence. His crimes were petty theft. According to the prosecution, he apparently disposed of his loving family because he didn't have any use for them anymore. However, I do believe that it is possible that MaryJane had discovered all of his lies, realized what he really was, and told him that she was taking their children and going back to Michigan. That may have been when he snapped. We will probably never know for sure what really happened. What he did is just senseless. Thank you for your understanding.

      Delete
  7. Your last paragraph is where I'm at. As far as the blood, everything about that detail has been vague. The information that most who accuse Justin are going on is all hearsay released by the maternal side (cup of blood, etc.), so I don't buy it. The rest of your post & speculation reads like a CSI episode, or something you only see in movies.

    I am not an illogical person. I've constantly reevaluated my thoughts regarding this case. I read the actual information released by MSP.I know what I've seen firsthand of Justin & those close to him. I wish people could set aside their anger toward whoever they're aiming it at, and act reasonably. Your post is very well written, but I feel like it's only feeding the hatred, and I'm not so sure that's helpful. I don't understand where many of the haters are coming from, to be honest.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't see it as hatred. I don't hate the Dipietros. But I do believe they are hiding the truth. I believe from what LE has said, that they know where Ayla is. Even if what I believe is true, I still don't hate them. They may well be very sick individuals, but we all know those types are out there living lives that look like you or I. People fool people all the time and I think those who support Justin are being fooled big time. No hatred here.

      Delete
    2. You may not be, but many are. It's also been said that we're blindly following Justin as if we don't think for ourselves. I'm not being fooled by anyone, nor am I a sheep. I may be reading the case wrong, but you may be, too. We all see things the way we choose.II've chosen a different path, that's all.

      Delete
    3. honestly we dont know the truth and we may never know the truth about what happened to this innocent little girl, but we can base our opinions about what happened to ayla on the facts and evidence. The facts and evidence both show that those 3 in the house knows what happened to her! MSP have proved no abduction happened, blood was found, and they have said they believe she is not likely to be found alive. I believe all 3 knows exactly what happened and they are just covering. How there have been no arrest i have no clue why not? It really makes no sence.

      Delete
    4. Michelle the post wasnt to breed more hate it was to try and understand how it could be possibly that so many are allegedly involved but not one has spoken to make a deal especially when they have families of their own. It doesn't make sense to me that all are culpable and in Juliette's case like mentioned above it could also be a case of plausible deniability. The boyfriend was charged with her murder, the mother with neglect. Charise said she took a sleeping pill so didnt know what happened maybe the friend in the house didnt really know either because he was drunk or sleeping.

      I don't know what happened to Ayla but I don't think this is one big coverup/conspiracy involving so many people. The blood is what keeps me pulling away from the abduction scenario. I also do not think drugs were a factor

      Delete
    5. Tori

      Here are my thoughts on the blood, you can take them into consideration or not, like I said they are my thoughts only. I do not have the exact links for what I am saying but anyone can find them with a simple search. McClausland has said blood was found and some samples are Ayla's but more testing needed to be done. He said that the fact that blood was found was troubling, not that the amount of blood was troubling. The maternal family at that time announced blood was found and it was more than a small cut would produce. McClausland at that point said something like we were going to hold back the blood details but the maternal family has put it out there and it is true. Now right there I as a mother and I am sure many others who have children know if a child falls and gets a cut on their face or mouth or has a bloody nose the amount of blood would definitely look like more than a small cut would produce. Just from my personal experience I was at work one night and my husband called and said I had to come home right away my daughter fell and bumped her head on the coffee table. He said she was bleeding bad and we needed to take her to the ER(we only had one car at that time so I needed to come home). I walked into the house and she was covered in blood, the front of my husbands shirt was covered in blood there was a bloody cloth he was holding on her head. I looked at the cut and saw it was no more than 1/4 inch long. Definitely nothing that required a stitch but with the amount of blood I saw you would have thought it was a 4 inch gash. So to me more than a small cut would produce is not something a child would need to see a doctor for.

      Then we hear from the maternal family they were told a cupful of blood. I call that bullshit, not necessarily that they were not told that but that more than a cupful was found. The cupful statement has never been confirmed by LE. We have heard all this talk mostly rumor about cleaned up blood. Well how can you tell how much from a cleaned up spot, maybe if there was a pool of blood on the floor uncleaned not soaked into anything but definitely not a cleaned up spot. Now I have sort of tested this theory for my own good sake. Take a small container of red poster paint and mix it with water to make a cupful, that is about the consistency of blood. Now dump it on the floor(that alone is enough to make you sick to your stomach at the thought and sight. Now try to clean it up, as you are wiping it it spreads further and further. If it is not cleaned up immediately it spreads on it's own. There would have to be quite a huge area of only Ayla's blood to make a cupful. That sort of area alone with no real way to measure the amount seems would be enough to declare her gone long before they said they no longer think she will be found alive. Now I wonder if the maternal family was told a cupful was that a tactic to get their reaction? And if so why?

      These are just some thoughts I have had about the blood.

      Delete
    6. Wondering...great post! I share the same thoughts.

      Delete
    7. As do I wondering.

      Delete
    8. I think many of us are wondering about the blood, I did a post last week on it, my son had a bloody nose and it looked as though someone had been murdered in his room. I don't understand how LE could possibly determine an exact amount since most of it was supposedly found via luminol plus I agree McCausland said the finding of blood was troubling, I don't think he meant the amount of blood.

      I haven't closed my mind off that an abduction has occurred, I just don't know what happened to come to any solid conclusion.

      Delete
  8. PLAUSIBLE DENIABILITY

    A condition in which a subject can safely and believably deny knowledge of any particular truth that may exist because the subject is deliberately made unaware of said truth so as to benefit or shield the subject from any responsibility associated through the knowledge of such truth.

    THIS is exactly why I believe Phoebe was not in the house that "night" of the story. I have always believed that her being gone was done purposely, so that she would not have to say what she knew.

    Who knows WHEN she left the house for her man friends place and what took place before she left?

    ReplyDelete
  9. I don't think love could keep Courtney or Justin silent and run the risk of being an accessory to murder. I don't think that Elisha has that much love for her brother or Courtney. So that gives a theory they were all equally involved in what happened to Ayla or none were, which leaves only one of them knowing the truth. LE only said the 3 were not telling all they knew about what went on that night.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. the space betweenMarch 19, 2013 at 6:54 PM

      I believe McCausland stated that they believe the 3 - or 1 or 2 of them - were not telling all s/he/they knew.

      Delete
    2. the space betweenMarch 19, 2013 at 7:00 PM

      “We think that he or the two others inside that home … may have more information that they just haven’t told us,” McCausland said." http://bangordailynews.com/2012/05/31/news/mid-maine/police-highly-unlikely-ayla-reynolds-will-be-found-alive/

      Delete
    3. The peope in that house could keep quiet about what happened to Ayla IF they all believe it was an accident, or unintentional. This is where they all feel righteous against all the outside opinion. They know they are right in keeping silent and making up the abduction story.

      None of them will break because they all feel justified; it was not a premeditated act. Why should anybody have to suffer anything which was an accident, or not intended and perhaps go away for a number of years, lose custody of a child, put their life on hold for something that no one intended to happen?

      And they have so many examples that abduction stories work in many cases when there is no body. Or when the body is discovered too late to give cause of death.

      Why is it impossible believe that any number of people can keep a secret of this magnitide when their whole lives are on the line. What would be their motive in confessing to anything? Conscience? There people are very human...and they are also cowards. They did not bond with this child and so therefore the adult involved in the "accident" is so much more precious to the group. Come on!

      Delete
    4. How do you know they didn't "bond" with Ayla??? You don't. You have no knowledge of whether they did or didn't consider Ayla precious to them. I can't imagine they would bother to bathe, provide for, hold, play with or even dress up for Halloween a child they felt nothing for. No one sits and reads a story to a child they don't want around. They don't make sure she has a drink handy. They don't video her dancing around the living room. They don't sit and hold her. Pictures have proven Justin and his family did do these things, including Courtney.

      Delete
    5. I doubt very much that they bonded with Ayla. Eight weeks does not make a bond. Obviously, not a very lasting one, considering the Dipietros cannot even open their mouths and speak up for Ayla. Ayla meant nothing to them, not then and not now.

      Delete
    6. How long does it take to form a bond?

      I was bonded with my children before they were born.
      With my grandchildren, the moment I saw them.

      Delete
  10. Interesting post Tori.

    I have leaned towards Ayla being abducted for some time.
    For many reasons which I've stated over time, as well as,I don't see 3 or more being involved in a cover-up.

    If Ayla met with foul play in the DiPietro home, and the facts we know are accurate...as to Ayla being there Friday night, and put to bed around 8,..then it can only stand to reason that at least 2 people (probable all 3) have to know what happened.

    Ayla was upstairs with the only other adult, Elisha. Did Elisha do something to Ayla, then dispose of her body? She'd have to leave Gabby, travel somewhere not close by to dispose of Ayla, straighten out, all without being heard. I just can't and don't see that. Does she even own an auto? I also don't think she would cover up for Courteny nor Justin, not purposely knowing what happened. Not having undergone several interrogations. Yes, plasable deniability.

    Justin and Courtney were downstairs, so if something happened to Aylla downstairs both of them would know, no doubt in my mind about that. Did one of them aid the other in disposing of Ayla and cleaning up? Possible
    Would they cover for one another? Possible.
    Courtney would have gone through the same intense interrogations, and polygraph testing, as Elisha and Justin. Probably much more so than Elisha.
    She is a well educated adult with a child, would she risk a prison sentence, loose her child for Justin's sake? Not take a deal? I don't know, and I have doubts about that. That's extreme guilt to live with.
    Did she harm Ayla, and Justin is covering for her? Disposing of his daughter? I have even more doubts about that.
    I could see them covering for one another, (even if it's all 3) in the immediate days after the crime, but not for 15 months. Not after all those interrogations and other ploys by LE.
    Of course it's possible, I just find it very hard to believe. I'd have to have more evidence to convince me.

    I believe that just because there is no evidenxe of an abduction, does not mean it could not have happened. I'm very open to the possibility there was.





    ReplyDelete
  11. Wasn't there a new post up about an hour ago discussing the topic of the grand jury and warrants? I could have sworn it was here because I am not able to see united4ayla at all

    ReplyDelete
  12. never mind I must have clicked on a link and it took me to the grand jury post from a week or so ago. sorry :O)

    ReplyDelete
  13. Okay, who Abducted Ayla and for what reason? Don't tell me a custody disagreement is still holding Ayla captive in a safe house? I don't believe it.

    Neither Justin nor Trista would have the resources to hide Ayla. And for what purpose? So they never could see her again for many years until this all blows over?? And some long-lost relative could do the rearing of a child they both seemingly wanted? When will Ayla come home...when she graduates from high school?

    So who is left to take the child? Someone stalking the house as Phoebe hinted? Someone who knew Ayla would be sleeping alone withour her cousin that night? Someone who knew that none of the adults would stir, even though , they were sleeping with toddlers, ot perhaps might have to use the loo? Someone who is so adept at kidnapping in strange houses that he/she can get in absolute silence, scoop up Ayla, and leave no trace which the FBI's trained
    specialists can determine as an abduction!terminig kidnappings

    Phoebe is keen to tell us that it was awful thinking that someone was casing her house. Yet none of the DiPietros semed at all concerned about security for the house that night and none of them seemed to know for sure if all windows and doors were locked. Nah, doesn't make sense.

    Most important thing missing from an abduction scenario is the fact that none of those people in the house were the least concerned about Ayla's treatment with the kidnapper. Justin was very sanguine about the whole thing with his incomprensible first statements about "You are not her parent. you might think you are doing what is best for her." And Ayla probably thinks it's a game and is adjusting, blah, blah.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Tell Me More said "How do you know they didn't "bond" with Ayla??? You don't. You have no knowledge of whether they did or didn't consider Ayla precious to them."

    Because none of them EVER expressed any fears about Ayla at the hands of this "kidnapper" who if he/she existed would have used Ayla for nefarious purposes such as sexual gratification of some perverted kind and has subsequently killed her. That is what mudering pedophile kidnappers are all about. They kill their victims.

    Of course, perhaps Justin believes she was only kidnapped for a children's pornographic purposes. What those children end up as is more likely worse than being murdered. Sometimes they too are killed.

    Unless, of course, you want me to believe that Justin and his crew believe that Ayla was abducted by Trista and her group, and had no worries about her safekeeping and care!

    To which I say, why didn't Justin just accuse the Reynolds side of taking her and keeping her? Oh, no he and his close associates siduously avoid doing so. But Justin and his minders lets his supporters do so in droves. From the very beginning.

    Perhaps Justin and cew beliee Ayla was kidnapped ny a loving person just needing a little child desperately. Then why no pleadings to keep her warm, give her meds for her arm, be sure she had the right kind of food and surroundings. Not a word! Just drop the kid off somewhere, if you please. Yawn.

    Either Justin knows what happened to Ayla, or he feels she is better off with the kidnapper/abductor who took her. Therefore no bond between the DiPietros and little Ayla.

    ReplyDelete
  15. siduously? should be assiduously in post above. I can't type. WTH.

    ReplyDelete