Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Reader Submission-John P.

Many of you are familiar with one of the regular readers here, John P. John worked on a great summary of what may have happened to Ayla using logic and deduction. He sent it to me for my opinion and I asked if we could post it. Thank you John!


Another Possible Scenario

There was no kidnapping based on MSP statements and FBI actions the day of 17 December 2011. The abuse (weather intentional or accidental) is documented and the neglect is evident in all actions since December 17th. There is no disputing the broken arm, though the circumstances as to how it happened are disputable due to Justin’s own recollection of events on the news interview when he stated “it is burned into my brain”. The pulled leg muscle occurring while horse playing (his words), is not disputable because Justin has never refuted Trista’s timeline regarding this event. Granted, several individuals have tried to refute it on behalf of Justin, but he has never publicly refuted it himself. The facial bruises occurring in a non-existing ball pit at chuck-e-cheese, has also never been publicly refuted by Justin either. The missed DHHS date for returning Ayla to Trista after rehab is also not disputable. Too many individuals from DHHS to a lawyer to multiple family members all heard the agreement. The purchase of a $25,000 death pay-out Life Insurance Policy, the totality of all the lies from Justin culminating when he stated he was not visually shown the luminal enhanced photos of the blood stains, later directly contradicted by MSP that he was shown the pictures. Which brings followers of the case to the blood spilled in Justin’s’ bedroom mere inches from where he laid his head to sleep. 

Now in order to discuss the blood of Ayla on the bedroom floor, several questions have to be asked about the spilling of Ayla’s blood. The answers to those questions can give limited plausible theories which will incorporate all answers, and then some. Those questions needing answers are; 

1. How much blood was spilled? 

2. When did the spilling of Ayla’s blood occur? 

3. Why would Ayla not be treated? 

4. Who cleaned-up the blood? 

5. Why would everyone in the house cover this up? 

6. What injury could be sustained to produce “significant” blood lose in such a short time?


Question 1 - How much blood was spilled? This is answered several times, by several different sources. The three most notable amounts were the 3-4 droplets reported by Heidi based upon what she was told by Justin, Answers For Ayla reports being told it was more than a cupful, and Law Enforcement stated it was a “troublesome” amount that was more than a “small cut would produce”. Well, obviously with the luminal pictures shown to Justin, we know it was more than a few droplets. To be fair to both families and because LE will not verify the cupful statement (though I am inclined to believe the cupful statement), I will assume the amount is between troublesome and a cupful. ANSWER = ½ cup


Question 2 - When did the spilling of Ayla’s blood occur? Because Trista was last allowed to speak with Ayla on the 8th of December, it is fair to say that the injury occurred between the 9th and 16th. Recall that Justin is video-taped at Cumberland Farms in Portland on the 15th. There was significant clean-up required for the blood so assume the injury occurred between the 9th and 14th. Ayla was not brought to her appointment on the 12th. I would “assume” there is a reason for the missed appointment. That now limits the spilling of Aylas blood to the 9th – 11th. Based on this scenario, there was a minimum of 5 full days to clean-up Aylas blood and dispose of any remaining evidence. Because of the excuses given and delaying tactics used to prevent Ayla and Trista from speaking, I am leaning more towards the 9th than the 11th. ANSWER = 9th or 10th of December


Question 3 – Why would Ayla not be treated? Because the adults at the house on the evening in question, 9th or 10th, were either A) involved in criminal activities, or B) the injury sustained by Ayla was fatal in nature. Though in my heart I hold out hopes I am wrong, the amount of blood spilled was too significant for Ayla to survive without proper medical attention. ANSWER = B) Ayla sadly no longer needed medical attention.


Question 4 – Who cleaned-up the blood? – This question is answered by the devotion shown to Justin and the silence maintained with both the media and Law Enforcement by the girlfriend of an individual being publically accused of the death of his daughter. This would implicate her in the cover-up of whatever happened to Ayla and tampering with evidence at a minimum. ANSWER = Courtney Roberts


Question 5 - Why would everyone in the house cover this up? We do not know who was in the house when the injury was sustained by Ayla because we do not know the exact date of the injury. It is solely my belief that a minimum number of people were in the house and those two, Courtney and Justin, were able to conceive a scenario that was relayed to Phoebe and Elisha after the fact. This would explain why Phoebe was not at the house on the night of the 16th. It does not absolve her of responsibility for lying on the interview and doing nothing to speak out for her granddaughter though. She simply was not controlling the story that was to be told to LE. She desperately wanted to protect Justin, but failed in her initial story. Recall that she was known by friends to have covered-up all the kid’s transgressions throughout their childhoods (ie, the Radio Shack incident). ANSWER = Justin and Courtney had direct involvement, Phoebe and Elisha were protecting their son and big brother respectively, Lance was not involved until well after the plan had been conceived and too late to bring Ayla back, and Derek because of the Life Insurance Policy


Question 6 - What injury could be sustained to produce “troublesome” blood lose in such a short time? There are several possibilities in any house that could cause this. Knives, box cutters, pick ax, ecetera could all do this kind of harm to the human body. But then one has to look at the location of the blood and ask oneself, what commonly in that location could do this much harm. With the blood being located in the cleaned up bedroom, kitchen implements and gardening tools can presumably be eliminated. As a home owner and hunter, there are frequently firearms either in a night table beside the bed or under a pillow. Other home protection devices, such as stun guns or pepper spray normally do not produce blood to be spilled, much less blood spilled in this quantity. The other option is a bayonet or machete type of knife. ANSWER = Firearm or large knife


With those questions now answered, I must now develop a scenario that fits the answers. This scenario is simply my own personal opinion as to how the answers fit together. I am in no way calling my answers FACTUAL. So you know my reasoning already, now here is my scenario. On the evening of the 8th of December, Justin and Courtney were alone in the house and thought it was their best chance for privacy and intimacy. They first must put Ayla and Aiden in the room downstairs to play. They then go upstairs for their long awaited privacy. The reason the children are downstairs is the room is soundproofed according to Selena and this would fit into my scenario. 


Within 10-15 minutes, Justin and Courtney hear a loud pop from the basement. They rush down and find Ayla on the floor bleeding and Aiden crying with a small home protection pistol laying on the bed beside Aiden. Justin and Courtney panic and attempt to render some personal medical attention. Justin running upstairs for towels and any other medical necessities from the bathroom breaks the baby gate and some of Aylas blood is then distributed at the bottom of the stairs and possibly a few other droplets around the basement. 


By the time he returns to the bedroom, Courtney has determined the wound to Ayla to be a fatal one. At this point they have a choice, call 911 and report the accident or cover everything up! They mistakenly choose to cover-up the accident, and to protect Aiden from psychological trauma. Courtney cleans up the blood while Justin disposes of physical evidence. Aylas remains are then placed in a secure container and moved to the shed in the backyard. 


Over the next short period of time, Phoebe and Elisha are told of the tragedy and asked to help to protect Aiden from the trauma and to protect Justin and Courtney from prosecution for what they have already done. Phoebe is irate after everything she had done to get Ayla and protect Justin from the state. But she is fluent with working the system so she decides to have Justin contact his childhood friend, D. Tudela. The life insurance policy which was purchased back in Oct-Nov is now modified and submitted with a back dated purchase date. This brings the Tudela family into the cover-up and that is why Justin and his family have received so much assistance from the Tudela family. Heidi must protect her own son, but Justin has the skeleton key for that proverbial closet in his pocket. On the 15th, once the policy is submitted, Justin must now tell Lance what is happening. In doing so, Justin did not realize how close Lance had grown to Ayla and Lance takes out the frustration of Justin. This frustration is what appears to have been the cause of what looked like a black eye and a very sore nose when Justin was on television. Justin decides to drink of the pain of Lances’ frustration with a visit to his buddies in Portland.


Unknown to Justin, Trista has had enough of being put off by Justin and not being allowed to talk with Ayla. She then goes to the courthouse and files for parental rights. Phoebe gets a call from a friend on the 16th informing her that Trista may have filed paperwork with the court. Phoebe now must initiate their plans a bit early. The coincidence of timing with the filing of paperwork to negative things happening is too great to ignore, Justin Linnel being assaulted and then Ayla being reported missing. Phoebes makes plans to be away from the house that night, Lance is told to stay away because he is still angry, and Justin, Courtney and Elisha make the phone call the next morning.


This is again just a theory that fits with the answers to the above 6 questions. But it is a scenario where most elements are incorporated and the Statements, when the time is right (when he gets charged) and the truth is what it is (another case of child-on-child violence) can both be fit in as well.

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article are those of the Author referenced herein, and are not to be deemed as fact unless otherwise published. Assumptions made from the content published in the articles of this Blog are not reflective of the position of any U.S. Government agency (i.e., Law Enforcement, Federal Agencies, etc.)..

190 comments:

  1. Well, if that isn't what happened, you sure gave them a great idea...blame it on the kiddos.

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    1. Anon,

      My intent with sending this to Tori was not to give plausible deniability to anyone involved. I started this a few weeks ago (3 weeks actually) to keep track for myself of events, statements and timelines. It answers alot of questions as to why the police have not arrested anyone yet, how the evidence and statements have cause and affects, and most importantly that not everyone is fixated one one possiblility meaning all angles are being looked at, etc. For the commenters who say not all sides are being investigated, if I (a novice) can have this theory I would assume a professional (LE) has also investigated this scenario as well.

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    2. With the Ayla's (likely) murder, the resultant clean-up completed, and cover-stories all but "locked-in"...How likely is it that the DiP crew would be able to now adopt and RETRO-FIT this claim to cover-up their past deed, successfully, if this is NOT what took place??

      Either the evidence found by LE supports such a claim occurred, or does NOT...

      I wouldn't worry about anyone inadvertently supplying Ayla's killers with a viable excuse at this point!

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  2. Very good reasoning and deducing by an obviously intelligent man and blogger. I think this is how all of us who care so much about about this case and Ayla are going to eventually figure out what really, most likely happened. I have to say though, I still lean very strongly towards Justin or Courtney as the killer. The systematic abuse which was so obviously escalating is in my mind the obvious culprit in poor AYLA's demise. Someone in that house was abusing Ayla, physically abusing her. It was getting worse and worse. So even though her death probably wasn't intentional, it was the inevitable outcome of deliberate, systematic, physical abuse.

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    1. Anon, Thank you for your comments. I agree the abuse escalated over the short time Ayla was in Justins care. There is no doubting that. And I can see your rational behind Justin or Courtney being the perpetrator. I jsut felt that Lance and Elisha would have no reason to cover for Courtney, no familial ties. Justin is a possibility in my mind but that does not explain Courtneys silence and refusal to take a polygraph. Just my logic though, yours should be different based on how the known facts present themselves to you.

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    2. You are welcome John, that post was by me LIBBYLOU, but I forgot to select my profile when I posted it. What I'm thinking is... they are all in this together. If what we suspect about their drug dealing/doing behaviors are true, then it may also be an indicator of their mindsets when it comes to crime in general. It may be a familial thing for some of them or a code of conduct that has been ingrained since childhood. From what I see, many of them appear to exhibit anti-social or sociopathic behavior like their lack of empathy for Trista who truly loved Ayla and their inability to exhibit real remorse or sadness.Ayla was probably like an object to them just like she was to Justin..and ends to a means, no more child support, a LIP payout. Drug dealers and doers despise snitches, snitches of any kind. They've learned from childhood to keep their mouths shut about criminal activities.

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    3. Oh yes, they are all definately involved. And I like the drug dealing connection, I just avoided using it for now because there has not been proof presented to back it up.

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    4. But if a gun was used, even a pistol or small hand gun-wouldn't there have been a huge amount of blood-say, alot more than 250 mls? Or does it depend on how close the gun is held to the victim? Or the type of gun? Isn't it kind of difficult to stab someone with a knife? Just asking because I don't know...

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    5. In addition to the above comment I left for John P.-could a kid the age of Aiden pull a trigger and aim a gun like that? I don't know how old he is? 3? This would explain why Courtney has kept such a low profile, and why it was not reported to 911, especially if the kids were not being watched very well. I want to say, what kind of an idiot would keep a loaded gun at the bedside, but, I guess a drug dealer might. Would he have forgotten that the gun was loaded and down stairs with kids playing?

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    6. So Tx.
      The trigger on each type of pistol is different as is the pressure required to fire. Aiden is 3 I believe and my experience with pistols is it does not take much and if he thought it was a play gun, a .22 caliber would be no problem to aim and fire. Though there has been no mention of the gun, over 100 pieces of bagged evidence was removed from the house. My guess though is it was unregistered and disposed of after the accident.

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    7. Sorry So Tx. I missed you first question, but when I was in Saudi, somalia, and Kuwait I can say the caliber of the weapon has a direct influence on the amount of bllood spilled. As does wheather or not the bullet exits the victim (2 bleeding wounds), as does the proximity of the barrel to the victim (closeness may cause a cauterizing effect on the wound), as does the speed of death (the longer the heart beats the more blood. Just so many factors to determine, sorry I could not be of more help and sorry for being so blunt with the response.

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    8. John P- don't be sorry for the bluntness as I am used to blood, won't faint, etc.I Do not know about guns. Have not had the occasion to use them(ours are for protection) and think I would probably do better with bear spray! I think alot of what you have said makes sense-especially due to the fact that Courtney has keep so out of this thing, looks as if she is hiding. Maybe to protect her child, which would still be her fault, and Justin's, dumping the kids down there to play, no supervision. It is really hard to NOT believe drugs were not involved in this thing as JD evidently has a reputation locally, and CR's sister's situation. If CR lived with her sis(Brianna), her kid was living with a ton of oxycontin. I can't imagine having your kid live in an unsafe place as that. Not to mention the coming and going of people all day and all night. I guess that is why I think drugs/drug money played into the whole story, somehow. For awhile, I even thought maybe Ayla was sold as a drug debt, maybe in Portland. But that doesn't explain the blood found. We could then assume they were careless, and it could have been as you described, or an angry outburst from JD, when Ayla wanted to be with them downstairs. Who knows? I now realize that my comments about Courtney and her kid living in the "Oxy House", in Portland, were deleted on "the other blog", months ago, due to the fact that it is her sister's blog, as I suspected. Which explains alot of things. Ugh, trash!

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    9. @John P, others here- hate to sound so pessimistic here, about poor Ayla. I hope to God she is alive, and found. So much time has passed now, it doesn't seem to be a viable idea. But we need to have some hope, for her family.

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  3. That is really disturbing, but thought provoking. I have a couple of questions.
    1. Is it possible they weren't paying attention and she fell down the stairs and a cut to the head or bloody nose could have occurred along with death?
    2. Where does Phoebe work?
    3. Do they have direct access to an incinerator?
    NickSmith

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    1. I can't be sure Anon, but I believe the blood was found beside the bed and not actually at the bottom of the steps. Can anyone clarify?

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    2. Bride, The blood found with luminol was stated to be beside the bed. The droplets discussed by Heidi I believe were found at the bottom of the stairs. In my scenario there are two possible methods the droplets got to the sairs, either while removing Ayla and evidence from the basement or one of the many scenarios discussed on J4A's page from yesterday. It is my belief that the droplets came during the clean-up. Hope that helps.

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    3. If this does not make sense, let me know. I guess I always assumed the blood drops were found beside or in the same area (beside the bed) and that lead LE to test the area and found the larger area of clean-up blood. Because of this ASSumption I always thought the drops were splatter or came from ayla as they moved her. That they may have been on something, like the side of the bed or the wall, somewhere that the person that cleaned the blood would not have thought to look for or the light in the room shaded the area. I'm thinking that lead LE to believe that the blood tested as Ayla's related to the blood that they did not have reslts back on yet. I hope I am making sense.. for example- it would be hard for LE to conclude that the blood by the stair that IS Ayla's blood means that the blood beside the bed is Ayla's too. We know that they have more than a hunch that the cleaned up blood IS Ayla's or they would not have told Trista that Ayla's blood was more than a cup. IMO

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    4. PB, If LE was unable to determine the origin of the blood I do not believe they would tell the family that the cleaned-up blood or even part of it, was Aylas. I think if they could not tell, they would have said that it was also being tested. Instead they said that a "troublesome" amount was Aylas and some was still being tested. I too believe the droplets were a result of the clean-up. Posibly a few (3-4) drops off a towel that had been used for the clean-up.

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  4. I have a question how old is adien?

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    1. This article is hilarious. Ayden is a baby. Now a baby shot and killed Ayla. This website is too funny in its inanity.

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    2. Minor point John P.: There is not the slightest bit of evidence that a firearm was ever in the house or that any of those who frequented the house had firearms. Sorry to rain on your parade.

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    3. Theories people. Ever hear of them?

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    4. "Theories" are based on facts, not pure fantasies. If there was information that Justin or Lance kept guns in the house, this yarn could be a *theory*. But without any basis whatsoever to think that guns or a gun was kept in the house, this yarn becomes just a waste-of-time daydream.

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    5. Definition of theory:
      a proposed explanation whose status is still conjectural and subject to experimentation, in contrast to well-established propositions that are regarded as reporting matters of actual fact. Synonyms: idea, notion hypothesis, postulate. Antonyms: practice, verification, corroboration, substantiation.

      Run on home Lies.

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    6. Thank you for your input. Without getting into all the details, facts, and statements that I am sure all of us have read, seen, and heard I believe that hunting advocates frequently maintain firearms, drug involvement through Courtneys sister frequently involves firearms, and home protection also involves firearms. Two out of three are qualifiers for me alone. I hunt (as does Justin enjoy hunting from articles I read) and I protect my home. The drug involvement I do not know alot about but it is just a theory that answered most questions.

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    7. Anon 8:38...at no point did John P present his piece as "factual." It is purely a scenario. I, too, find some of John's colorful details a tad far out there, but he's merely sharing his own personal theory.

      As for your "waste-of-time daydream" remark...I don't see how presening a speculative theory regarding the murder of a little girl a "daydream." Nightmare seems like a more suitable description.

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    8. Thank You McKeeKitty! I am hoping that my theory will invoke more to do the same, ultimately providing some answers for Ayla. And I thank you for being polite to me by just saying a tad far out there. I know my logic is sometimes a reflection of who and what I am, just a little crazy at times, so I thank you for being kind. :D

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    9. I think that it is a good idea to brainstorm- someone may say something and added to someone else's something may add up to someone remembering someone saying something or seeing something that may hold the answer. As far as Ayden, he is 3. Not to put John down or to say he's 100% wrong, but is a three year old strong enough to pull a trigger of a gun, or strong enough to stab someone hard enough to be fatal? I think some triggers are easier than others.. Also, do not forget that Courtney has LAUGHED at Trista.. to laugh at someone going through this is pure EVIL! Someone that evil may cover for their Boyfriend even if they were not directly involved- although I believe that both Elisha and Courtney, if not responsible ARE involved and that is why they are staying quiet.

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    10. Anon 5:16- there was over 100 pcs of evidence taken from Justin's house- no one ever stated that a gun or knife was NOT included in that evidence. They may be looking for the body to confirm that it is the murder weapon.. No one, including me knows this for sure, but it may just be..

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    11. PB, it is so awesome to see so many of you brainstorming for Ayla. As for firing a weapon, I have fired dozens of different weapons and I can say it depends on the trigger assembly and the child. As you said, when Ayla comes home, we will know if my theory holds water or not. Any of the bags carried out of the house could have contained a weapon. As for the strenght to stab, I was actually thinking of a slicing wound rather than a stabbing one. That would be possible by a three year old.

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    12. I may not necessarily agree 100% with the proposed theory, however someone above stated there was no evidence leading to a gun being in the home or Justin owning a gun whether a registered or unregistered one. Is there any evidence that he didn't?

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    13. J4A...the argument that while "there is no evidence there was gun around" being countered by the argument "but there's no evidence that there wasn't" is exactly the type of argument that is being made by people this blog tries to discount. You can't have it both ways. No offense and I hope you get my point.

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    14. Justins best buddy Derek deer hunts, wonder if that is something they enjoy together?

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    15. Very good question Chicky. I thought I read where Justins Uncle Larry was an avid hunter as well? Don't recall for sure though.

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    16. Dereks Dad as well. Interesting that derek listed Winslow as his legal residence when he actually lived in Clinton and his father listed China as his legal address tho he lives in Winslow. Not sure THAT is legal.

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  5. I too have thought about one of the children harming Ayla...including the bruising on her face. Ayla was not truly wanted in that house. The jealously by ALL...the poor child was not protected. During the children's squabbles, I'm sure heads were turned away & no discipline was provided by the instigators. Letting their child get away with murder includes Phoebe, Elisha & Courtney. One big, SICK family.

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    1. I'd say what is SICK is thinking like this--You are *SURE* about how the adults in the house supervised the kids, what their thoughts and feelings were, and other beliefs about people you have never met who are total strangers to you. Now THAT is sick. That is CRAZY!

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    2. Ummm...
      No.

      "SICK" is ripping a baby away from the only family she knew, knowing her mother was vulnerable to a custody-grab, simply to avoid future child-support liability..

      "SICK" is then REFUSING to return that suffering baby to her mother, as you AGREED to do, as soon as she completed rehab..

      "SICK" is taking out an LIP against the life of your only child, payable TO YOURSELF upon her "untimely death"...while being unemployed, living in your mother's basement, and not being able to PROVIDE for that baby's basic needs on your own..

      "SICK" is telegraphing your "fears" that someone was going to try and "take" your daughter, to her mother via text messages..

      "SICK" is breaking your toddlers arm and waiting more than 24 hours to seek treatment for her painful injuries, and using the excuse "I PAID GOOD MONEY FOR MY TRUCKING COURSE" for the delay..

      "SICK" is failing to attend follow-up appointments for your toddler's broken arm, or get her scheduled vaccinations while in your care..

      "SICK" is denying your child speak to the mother she dreadfully misses, using every excuse in the book for why she "cannot come to the phone"...

      "SICK" is murdering your baby to collect on an LIP, leaving her remains prey to the elements, and reporting her "abducted" from her bed...

      "SICK" is your MOTHER lying to the world on a sham CNN interview, trying to aliby your claims of "what happened that night", when SHE WASN'T EVE THERE...

      "SICK" is refusing to address your child's supposed "kidnappers", and publicly plead for her to be returned, unharmed...

      "SICK" is LE finding evidence that suggests ONE CUPFUL of your "abducted" daughter's blood spilled next to your bed, and you attempted to clean it up, and pretend it never happened...

      "SICK" is taking tons of photo's of a previously bubbly little girl---showing her reduced to a solemn and insecure *shell* of her former self, while in your care---and THEN touting them, to the world, as "PROOF", that she was NOT being abused during her time with you..

      "SICK" is trying to imply that mother of the baby you murdered, and her family, actually performed a custodial-kidnapping and have her HIDDEN somewhere...

      "SICK" is allowing your daughter's body to lay out in the elements for 4 months, when with just a word you could bring her home for proper burial..

      "SICK" is trying to defend a child-abuser and murderer's actions, by spreading lies and rumors about the child's grieving maternal family, and insinuating that the investigators and agencies diligently working the missing baby's case are INEPT, and/or DISHONEST, and are just trying to "frame" the killer!!

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    3. ITA VTLady, you are absolutely spot on with your definition of "SICK"!

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    4. Absolutely 100% agree VTLady!!

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    5. Well said VTLady. Sometimes the truth hurts. That is something the Dipietro's may come to realize over time.

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    6. Vt Lady, thanks for confirming what I have thought all along. You are as crazy as a loon. Now you imagine I am Justin, without the slightest basis. The facts you cite in your crazy ramblings are mostly figments of your imagination. You imagine these things because you have trouble distinguishing fantasy from reality. Hey, get help with those mental cobwebs. Please and thank you.

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    7. anon 12:23, Where in the world did VTLady accuse you of being Justin. Maybe you should take your own advice and get some help with the mental cobwebs???

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    8. Very good point VTLady abd I agree 100%.It is sick this story is wrong in every direction it don't matter what direction you take to figure out what happened because we don't know the facts about what happened all we know is what LE has said about it all and John P has a very good theroy about what happened but stil isn't factual but.... it does get us thinking.

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    9. VLady- You forgot one:
      SICK is that while complete strangers are out posting missing posters in stores and laundry mats HERE in Maine, you want people to congratulate you for posting boards 1000's of miles away. When was the last time you went out into the community and actually helped look for Ayla, Justin?
      BTW- Good Job VLady

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    10. WHERE IS AYLA???

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  6. I have thought about this before,that maybe a gun accident with the children,and they were protecting him.But wouldnt LE be able to tell by the blood if it was a gun shot injury? unless the clean up would change the pattern of the blood.they would also have to get rid of the gun,LE can tell if it was fired recently.

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    1. I think the blood patterns would be dispersed by the clean-up as well. The pistol would be easy to get rid of as evidenced by LE not having found Ayla yet. JMO

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    2. The gun would be easy to get rid of, but I'm pretty sure there would be gun shot residue in the area. Hopefully that would have been looked for by investigators.

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    3. Very good point Stace. I do not know how GSR reacts to bleach or other cleaning agents. Another good indicator would be fresh paint, new linens for the bed, and possibly a plater patch on a wall somewhere. But then again,a small caliber (.22) round could easily have been stopped by the first object it penetrated.

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  7. Excellent theory, John P! Very thought provoking. My only doubt is that it was a firearm; I think that LE would have announced this in some version or another from the beginning, as gunshot wounds are so distinctive but then again, I am no expert in the field. Again, excellent post; thank you for sharing!

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    1. Thank you JMH, I also enjoy reading your osts for the thought they provoke in me. When Ayla is brought home, and I still believe she will be found, my theory may be mute if there was no gunshot wound to Ayla. I hope I am wrong about everything and Ayla is found alive and well and reunited with her family.

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  8. Good job, John.I have to mull this one over a little.

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  9. The adults are all protecting someone besides THEMSELVES. Phoebe: JP,EP,LP & grandchild. Elisha: her child. Courtney: her child. Justin: niece (certainly not Ayla). Lance: niece. Take those children out of there & someone will talk to protect their interest.

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    1. Or Justin, Elisha, and Lance could be protecting their mother. Courtney could be protecting her child, her boyfriend, her drug connections if her sister wasn't the only one involved with the drug trade...

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    2. True, but the main focus would be the child. Why would Courtney care about Phoebe?

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    3. Anon 5:50, you state the main reason for my answer to why would everyone cover-up this tragedy question 5). Courtney is the outsider. If she and Justin were alone in the house, Courtney could easily involve Justin which thens brings the remainder of the DiPietro family into the cover-up as well.

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    4. Oh, anon 5:21, not to be nit-picky but the family name is DiPietro so it should be PD, Jd, Ed and LD. In reference to your comment about taking the children out of the equation to make someone speak up, it is a definate possibility. The one thing I would be leary of however is that DHHS must follow protocol. Most of us have been very critical of how DHHS handled Aylas case, so I personally would not want them doing the exact same thing to either Gabby or Aiden. I believe though that LE could work with DHHS, if enough evidence is present, in asking a judge for a removal order.

      Delete
  10. A couple of thoughts-

    The 9th and 10th make sense because they are weekend nights. Those nights would be likely times for partying. They also are nights when Courtney was known to be present and I don't think she'd be involved in a fake kidnapping story unless she had something to hide. The night of the 8th after Trista talked to Ayla also seems possible but less likely than the weekend.

    I am intrigued by a gun theory (though not esp. one attributing it to Ayden) but think it is not likely because the police would recognize blood splatter from a close-range gunshot. I think this case would look a lot different if the police knew Ayla had been shot at close range. Looking at a reportedly temperamental, immature, and often violent father, I think the most likely source of the injury is him throwing, shoving or punching Ayla. If she hit into something, there could be a lot of blood. If he punched her in the face (and there were facial bruises in the past, suggesting this could be a repeat incident, escalated, which is typical in abuse cases) she could lose a lot of blood. Facial and head wounds do bleed a lot.

    Assuming a violent injury, the tie in to the others involved in the cover-up might be their failure to recognize the seriousness of the injury and to get help. Or their going along with Justin's decision not to get help so as not to get caught. When it became apparent Ayla was dying, maybe they thought it was too late to reverse course.

    I would not assume at all that Phoebe was absent when this happened. If she is the mastermind control freak bloggers are saying she is, she probably gave the kids some lame reason why it would be better if she were not there when the fake kidnapping went down.

    As far as the clean-up goes, I think you're overstating the time it took. Not only did they do a crappy job, but it really doesn't take a lot of time to clean up a puddle and some spatter of anything on the floor. If it's blood and you bleach after the fact, it takes a little longer. Disposal of the clean-up aids and removal and ultimate disposal of Ayla's body were most likely the more pressing problems that took some time, particularly the thinking part which doesn't seem to be the forte of those players.

    Since there is no evidence of cadaver dog hits in the house we know of (and again if there were, I think the case would have taken a diff. course) Ayla was presumably alive or very recently deceased when removed from that house. That likely means she lived until the next day when they were all sobered up or they were not drunk/drugged when the incident happened.

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    1. Also a very plausible scenario. And your point on cleaning up is a valid point as well. The initial clean-up done sloppily, is how I believe the blood droplets were distributed to the stairway where HT says she saw cicles outlining the droplets. I had thought this scenario as well but how does the constant reference to "when the time is right" fit into this picture? It was the one thing that kept nagging me.

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  11. If Ayla wasn't abducted - if something worse happened to her, I don't believe it was the result of any accident. IMO, I believe it would either be the result of abuse, someone harming her in a fit of anger..or someone intentionally wanted to get rid of her permanently.

    I know we all have theories..some of us may share the same one, and everyone's probably had all kinds of different scenarios run through our minds at different times, but I have to admit when I see accident theories posted I do kind of worry about what Anon 10:23 mentioned in his/or her comment - that we might be giving someone ideas for a future defense.

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    1. Anon 5:31 I don't think the risk is very high. Any accident theory would have to fit the physical evidence. Any abuser is going to claim the injury he inflicted was unintentional. That's the nature of an abuser. And frankly if we can think of theories, don't think others with a motive to defend Justin aren't likewise capable.

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    2. There is no future defense for them. They ALL said Ayla was kidnapped. JMO

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    3. Remember that the DA sees and has access to the same info here as the defense.

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    4. Anon 5:39, Kit Bride, you are all right on the money with my thoughts. I had hesitation when I sent this to J4A for the very reason anon 5:31 stated, besides not wanting to appear to be an idiot with my sometimes obscure logic. I am not an attourney or LE Professional so if I thought of it, it is safe to believe several other professionals have as well. I heartfelt wish is that something close to this scenario is actually what happened and it opens honest communications between LE and the people involved in order to find Answers and Justice for Ayla!

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    5. @Kit - There was a time I wouldn't have thought there could be one either..since they've already claimed Ayla was kidnapped, that's changed thanks to Casey Anthony. Remember..in the beginning her story was a kidnapping too, and after Caylee was found it turned into a drowning. Even then she never really took the blame, she pointed the finger at her dad, and we all know how her trial ended.

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    6. I didn't really fully follow that case. I just think, in my mind, if someone states that their child was kidnapped, they shouldn't be able to THEN say, after new evidence is discovered/disclosed, ummm ok well I lied about a kidnapping, so instead now it was _________...

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  12. Great job John. However I do strongly believe it was one of the adults in that house that hurt Ayla. I expected people to jump all over this but if they would actually read it states theory..and all the ones that have something to say-lets see yours. I always enjoy reading what you write. Keep up the good work.

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    1. I agree Laurie! All ANYONE has to go on, are their own theories, and discussing them with each other. Parts of different theories, intertwined together, may lead to the truth of what happened to Ayla. Just because a theory, or a part(s) of a theory doesn't make sense to one person, it may to another. Sometimes fact is stranger than fiction. I think John spent a lot of time and energy coming up with his theory, FOR AYLA. To TRY to figure out what happened to that beautiful baby. I personally don't think it was a gunshot, nor a child that caused Ayla's "demise, down in that house", but I DO think with everyone speaking up on their own theories and thoughts and ideas, something may come of it. There are only a few people who know for sure what happened to Ayla, and they haven't spoken up yet.

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    2. Thank you Laurie and Kit,

      Your comments are giving me goosebumps to think that I was not an idiot for sharing with everyone. I am especially happy, like Laurie, I was not jumped on for having a bit of an off beat theory. If this provokes more logical scenarios and more conversations, I am happy that the intended cause and affect has been achieved. We all just want Answers and Justice for Ayla!

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  13. Nicely done John. I agree 100% with everything except for #6. I feel like Ayla's head was smashed down on the concrete floor because it could cause a lot of blood, but not so much as a gun or knife would produce. I believe trying to say Ayla fell would be proved a lie because of the force to her head and an autopsy would clearly show she was shoved, or her head was banged down on the concrete floor. The family coverup still shocks me because it shows the family did not care for Ayla and chose to cover up Justin instead of telling the truth for Ayla.

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    Replies
    1. Thank you Bride, your comments about a week ago were and are a driving force as to why I asked J4A to read this scenario. Tori and ALL her FRIENDS here are a true force in the fight to find Justice for Ayla.

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    2. You're right John, it's all about Ayla. Thank you for sharing with J4A and the rest of us. Ayla deserves nothing less.

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    3. Thank You John! That is what we strive for here, justice for Ayla. Plain and Simple.

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    4. Absolutely, Ayla deserves nothing less! J4A, thank you so much for reading my scenario and thinking enough of it to post. I really was hesitant but you, your readers, your fellow bloggers, and this Army of Ayla Supporters have been very gracious to discuss my thoughts. I hope and pray that Ayla will be home soon and no other pages will require discussions like this, but in the meantime Tori, please keep fighting. The readers here are behind the effort 100%!

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    5. Thank you John and thanks to all the readers here. I am amazed every day at their generosity and how caring everyone is.

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  14. @JohnP

    You did a *phenomenal* job in applying logic to narrow down the time-frame, and the likely role of each player in Ayla's death and the resultant cover-up!
    I also am in full agreement for the two likeliest causes of Ayla's blood being found in their said quantity and location.

    However, while I agree that "Aiden accidentally shot Ayla" story (or something similar) may well have been the LIE that JD and CR sold to the OTHERS, in order to get them "on-board" with helping to conceal what happened to Ayla, I DO NOT believe this is what ACTUALLY HAPPENED in the basement at 29 Violette Avenue.

    This is MY gut feeling about what transpired (Part I):

    Justin's attempt to avoid the next 16 years of child-support, by "confiscating" Ayla in Trista's absence, turns out to be WAY MORE TROUBLE than he expected. He is NOT taking to "fatherhood"...and AYLA is NOT taking to him. She wants to go home, and is acting-out; inconsolable.

    Courtney resents being saddled with the burden of caring for a child not her own, and ALSO the fact that having Ayla with them, has actually served to INCREASE the amount of phone calls by Trista to Justin. Courtney wants Trista out of the picture. ENTIRELY!

    She begins working on Justin. She encourages his outbursts of frustration and abuse toward Ayla (resulting in her broken arm).

    Courtneny also begins to gripe that Ayla's very EXISTENCE is the root of Justin's current financial "predicament".

    She reinforces his RESENTMENT of Trista as having "brought Ayla INTO the world, against Justin's wishes", only to then attempt to "trap him" into having to pay child-support so SHE can get public assistance, because SHE'S "too lazy to get a job".
    Her tactics work.

    Courtney plants the idea with Justin that the ONLY solution to their situation is to PERMANENTLY rid themselves of Ayla. She appeals to Justin's prominent greedy-streak by suggesting that they could actually PROFIT from Ayla's murder. It would be easy...
    Didn't he say his old childhood friend, Derek, sold insurance??

    Justin cons Ayla's SS# from Trista, using the rouse of "Phoebe wanting to open a college savings account" for their child.
    He USES the information to purchase the LIP instead.

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    Replies
    1. Add in that Justin's Driving class is now over and he wants to move back to Portland to be closer to Courtney...

      Delete
  15. MY gut feeling about what transpired (Part II):

    The two then stage Ayla's "accidental death".
    They realize after-the-fact that there is a VERY BIG PROBLEM.
    Her death either doesn't look "accidental" as intended, OR
    they realize that they could be held criminally negligent FOR the accident having occurred.

    For instance:
    Perhaps they then realize that, not ONLY is the pistol JD used "unregistered", and possibly can be linked to other crimes, BUT that their leaving the pistol, loaded and within easy reach of two year-olds in their care, COULD leave them facing charges of criminally negligent homicide etc..

    Ooops!
    They could BOTH face some jail time. Courtney could lose custody of Ayden. Plus, most LIPs will NOT payout, if the policy beneficiary is charged with ANY crime in relation to the death of the insured!!

    They decide to move on to an impromptu "plan-B":
    They tell Phoebe, Elisha, and (later on) Lance and Derek, that Ayden DID "shoot Ayla". It was a horrible and tragic accident.

    Cover-up conspirators now enlisted, they decide to conceal all evidence of what took place in the basement, and then report Ayla "abducted" at some other point in the near future.
    Perhaps, JD and CR believe, if all goes RIGHT with plan-B, they can STILL collect on the LIP eventually:
    Ayla will be found after any evidence linking THEM to her death is gone, and an unidentified "child-abductor" will be assumed by LE, to be responsible for Ayla's murder.

    They are in the process of cleaning-up and disposing of evidence, when Trista puts a kink in their plans, by filing custody-related paperwork.

    Now they're FORCED to rush everything into place before being fully "ready". They have to report Ayla abducted before the following monday morning, if it is to be believed they "didn't know about" paperwork being filed!
    They do so, but fail to clean up properly, or stage the "break-in" properly, and, as we know, everything begins to unravel...
    JMO/MOO

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    Replies
    1. Vt Lady, the evil that lurks in the cobwebs of your mind is disturbing.

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    2. It is unfortunate that we all have to think on these lines because the person who truly had evil lurking in their mind is covering up a crime.

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    3. Well, "Anon"...
      I'm sorry to be forced to think the worst:
      That Ayla's death was PREMEDITATED by JD and CR. But that's where the facts and supposed "coincidences" lead me, logically.

      The LIP, and Justin's own statements revolving around FINANCIAL considerations, bolster the idea that Ayla's MURDER was pre-planned and financially motivated!

      Recall the chilling statement Justin made, about deciding to attend his last trucking class after HE BROKE Ayla's arm, rather than take her to the ER immediately, because he had "spent GOOD MONEY on the course".

      Look at what Justin (and his family) conspired to DO TO AYLA, in order to get him OUT OF PAYING nominal court-ordered CHILD SUPPORT:
      They had AYLA removed forcibly from her Aunt's arms---KICKING AND SCREAMING!!
      Who would traumatize a baby in this manner for such a petty reason??

      Look at Trista's claims that Courtney Roberts has OPENLY MOCKED her grief, on more than one occasion!

      No.
      I will NOT believe that the LIP was either a "red-herring", OR purchased after-the-fact and then backdated, without PROOF of such, BASED upon the callousness and flat-out EVIL these folks have displayed, thus far!!

      They simply DO NOT DESERVE any such "benefit of the doubt".
      JMO/MOO

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    4. I agree 100% VTLady. Very well written. I believe this is hitting right on the nail. Someone had posted that Elisha and Courtney are keeping quiet because they are protecting their little ones. No, They are keeping quiet to protect themselves. They do not care about Gabby or Ayden. If they did, they would be speaking for Ayla! They do not care rather they lose their children at all. Druggies and Babies DO NOT MIX! Where is Ayla?

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    5. VTLady, you are the bomb. I was hoping this would provoke more logical discussion and you have already given a logical solution I had not thought about. The fact that JD and CR could have committed the act and just blamed it on a child for support in the cover-up, I had not thought of this possibility. You rock! Thank You!

      The one thing I disagree on with your scenario, is that if it was premeditated, why would they be so simple minded to carry the plan out in the basement of thier home? I don't have the degrees Courney does so obviously not as intelligent, but I would have gone to a childhhod location I know to be isolated from the community to carry out the plan. JMO

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    6. One thing still bugging me is I don't think Lance knew until the 17th. If it happened the 9th or 10th, how is it that they kept it from him that long? Does he only stop by the old homestead periodically?

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    7. John P,

      That is perplexing. I don't think what happened at Violette was what they intended to happen. Could they have tried to smother her and been surprised at the struggle? Just throwing out alternatives, not accusing anyone. I think the injury actually inflicted was not intended to occur when and where it did, because you are correct, they would have to be complete dufuses to plan to murder someone and botch it so badly.

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    8. Anon 10:16, not to imply this is a fact about Lance, it isn't, but my ckildren (26 & 27 y/o) tend to come by when they know something good is in the oven or they need something. It could sometimes be weeks between thier visits.

      Anon 10:19 I agree that the location and means of inflicting the harm to Ayla was the accidental part of the equation. Very nice observation.

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    9. John P.,
      Don't underestimate your intelligence or overestimate Courtney's. Let's not forget, she is a single mom, so that college education was more than likely paid for with Pell Grant money. And after tuition and books were paid for, there was money left over for drugs, shoes, hair, nails, whatever. If you are what you hang with; she probably went to college to get that check and didn't take much more away from it. JUST MY OPINION.

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    10. @JohnP:

      Lol!
      ITA choice of locale was asenine.
      There's no accounting for stupidity, that's for sure..

      CR is clearly the "brains" of the operation, but isn't as smart as she thinks.
      I believe she played a large part in manipulating JD into escalating his abuse of/killing Ayla, and to try and profit off of it with the LIP.

      If this is the case, I assume that while she pulled a lot of the strings and manipulated many of the events, she was relying on JUSTIN to carry out the violence, while making him think that all of it was "really HIS idea"...
      Perhaps, she thought she had greater control over "Goliath" than she actually did, and was taken by surprise when JD took it upon HIMSELF to commit the murder WITHOUT her instruction??

      I could see HIM getting fed up and just deciding to "do it already", and not thinking about the logistics.
      Details such as:
      *Locale (as you had mentioned).
      *The gun involved in the shooting "accident".
      *How to arrange things to invite the LEAST chance of being held criminally negligent.
      *Staging the angle of the gunshot trajectory to appear as though someone "Ayden's height" could've pulled the trigger, etc., etc...
      Let's face it---Justin ain't the brightest, and he strikes me as impulsive!

      Courtney may have thought he'd wait for HER direction and advice, and she found out otherwise.

      Even if the actual "fatal event" was a DIFFERENT sort of botched accidental death, rather than a staged gunshot, I think the same basic scenario outlined above COULD account for why the staged "accident" ended up an abyssmal botch-job, requiring hasty clean-up and adoption of a less than optimal "plan-B"...

      I also truly believe that Elisha, Phoebe, and Lance were lead to believe they were covering up some sort of UNINTENTIONAL death of Ayla, and didn't realize it was flat-out premeditated murder until they found out about the LIP... Hence, the separate lawyer hired for them and a separation from association with JD.
      JMO/MOO

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    11. Stace, your words are ringing true to me with the more comments I read, Thank You!

      VTLady, you are making perfect sense. I guess looking back on everything as a whole, Justin can't be too bright to have had this many botches. Maybe he was simple enough to believe LE would only look in the bedroom they claimed Ayla slept in and wouldn't even go downstairs. Anything is possible, I guess.

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    12. I agree with most of VT's theory. I do think however, that we will be very surprised to find out who was behind what.

      Stay tuned, exciting posts up ahead!

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    13. Grace, you keep teasing. You are getting pretty good at that. :D

      Delete
  16. John P...you clearly put a chunk of time and effort into composing and presenting your theory. No doubt Miss Ayla Bell is grateful that you care so deeply about her.

    Some of the details you offer are a bit fantastic and highly imaginative, but this doesn't diminish your dedication to Ayla.

    I strongly believe Ayla met her fate on the heels of December 8 when Trista last had contact with her daughter. I strongly believe that Ayla bled out in that basement. And I strongly believe that the manner in which Ayla died could not be passed off as an accident. Thus the intricate cover-up.

    I hope and pray each day that someone goes stark-raving mad with guilt and starts talking.

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    1. That would be awesome McKee but I don't believe this family has souls and therefore do not understand the true definition of guilt. The only thing they feel badly about is public perception against them. They care squat for Ayla or they would have told the WHOLE TRUTH AND NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH long before now. Lying seems to be a family trait in the Dipietro world. Not to mention, drugs, booze, anger, hostility, violence, theft and cover-ups to name a few. The people don't live like humans as we know them, they are animals.

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    2. Bride, you just described the Reynolds and company to a T.
      John, please stop "contributing", it's embarrassing to read how your mind works and have it confirmed that you are unstable.

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    3. JohnP's blogpost displays both clarity of thought, and the sensible conclusions produced by a logical mind, capable of independent thought.
      Jealous, much???
      :/

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    4. So true, Bride.

      I don't expect any of the Dips to come forward. However, I do hold out help that someone familiar with the Dips and knows the skinny might have a conscience. Bob Vear comes to mind. Perhaps a reluctant neighbor. Perhaps a druggie co-hort.

      Dark secrets have a way of eventually surfacing.

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    5. Thank you ladies, I appreciate your thoughts about my opinions and how I arrived at them. I would hope though, that one of the DiPietros did care for Ayla, Lance, and will eventually speak up on her behalf.

      Thank you VTLady, your kind words of my blogpost are appreciated.

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    6. Dark secrets don’t always come out . Families sometimes
      Hold on to them forever.. They die with the caretakers. CR of coarse
      Is not a part of that ring, but involved enough to keep her mouth shut .. Maybe
      Fear could be playing a part also.

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    7. VTLady, the anon of 9:24 sounds very much they wrote or read the about me on the latest post on another site. I will not respond to it there or here unless she wants to speak to me logically and rationally without saying that I am sick MFer and not discussing my medical condition. But I do enjoy your response. You say it so much better than I.

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  17. http://startthelies.blogspot.ca/2012/04/charla-y-anderson-pawlata.html very useful info on JSTL

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    1. JSTL??
      Haven't you heard? She's all washed-up.
      And, feeding the animals just encourages them to come around begging!!
      ;)

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    2. I am allowing the reference to JSTL to stay because I just checked out that blog and am in love with the blogger. :)

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  18. Drug addicts like Justin never have money. Seeing he is recognized around Waterville as a "small-time" dealer, he probably dealt to break even with the amount of Oxy's, coke, and pot he was using. They deal, to use. Unfortunately for addicts they soon begin to LOSE money when they are using more than they are selling. They then resort to cutting more chemicals into the coke and hiking the prices of the pot and oxy's. I have a feeling Justin may have owed someone a LARGE sum of money and his low-rent skimming was not paying the bill. In his delusional mind he concocted a coping mechanism based on "parallel lying" wherein since he never wanted Ayla anyhow, and she was routinely abused and had an alchy-mother, Justin thought making money off Ayla while helping her to escape the miserable predicament she was in was actually JUSTIN doing a good thing for Ayla. I truly believe he has justified her death at HIS hands in this way to help him sleep. He uses Trista as his excuse for everything done to Ayla and Phoebe as his excuse for being the cunt he is.

    I have a feeling you are going down, bitch.

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    1. I have a feeling that none of this comment is fact based.

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    2. I have a feeling that it is fact based.A really good feeling. Stay tuned.

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    3. Anon 1245, you've been saying that all along. Its getting old.

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  19. I think if one reads the same stuff over and over one could become persuaded to believe things that are totaly illogical.
    That's all I'm going to say.

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    1. I agree. I'm more interested in facts. I think the police know what happened and they need proof now.

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    2. If MSP "know" what happened, then they have proof. They can not "know" what happened without proof.

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    3. Anon 10:30,

      I have to agree with anon 10:52 that if MSP "knows" what happened they have to have proof. Otherwise it would be exactly what I wrote, a THEORY! But thank you for your input. I hope you keep posting and adding your thoughts as well so Ayla can be Brought Home!

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    4. They CAN "know what happened" without proof.
      There are all SORTS of stipulations and regulations imposed upon the state for what constitutes a piece of evidence having "met the burden of proof" in the court of law.
      Chain of custody MATTERS. So does HOW the evidence was obtained, etc..

      If the MSP obtained the "smoking gun", with JD's fingerprints on it, but did so in a manner PRECLUDING IT from being considered "admissable" such as it being the product of some kind of "illegal search", that evidence and anything STEMMING FROM IT (even, in some cases a flat-out CONFESSION) can be thrown out..."Fruit Of The Poisoned Tree".

      In such a situation, investigators WOULD rightfully be able to claim they "know" he had done it, but may NOT be able to "prove" it, legally.
      Just sayin'!!

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    5. VTLady, you are so right. I think that is why the McKeeKitty post directly below is so promising. LE is getting close!!!

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    6. ITA!!
      I believe McKeekitty's detective was speaking the truth..

      I also noticed the immediate and scathing rebuttal, her remark illicited from our resident "Anon" troll...

      They are ALWAYS most vicious when a commentator gets too close for comfort, or says something that is truly threatening to the idea of DiP & co.'s continued freedom!
      ;)

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    7. Anon 10:28 you say "I think if one reads the same stuff over and over one could become persuaded to believe things that are totaly illogical." I have a question, where else did you see this posted where I could have read this so many times? All I can say is J4A posted here e-mail below so you can send your more logical scenario if you would like.

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  20. Here's my theory.

    I'm still feeling stoked with the concluding words from the MSP detective I spoke with a couple of weeks ago: "Stay tuned...we're getting close!"

    I believe LE has this all figured out. I really do. How they came to their conclusion is complete speculation. A fatal amount of blood? Discovery of brain tissue from the lab? The 911 tape? A verifiable tip? The "hundreds" of pieces of evidence removed from the home? Contents on a computer hard-drive? I have absolutely no idea.

    It is imperative that LE play this very close to the vest at this juncture to preserve the integrity of their case. The wheels of justice move painfully slowly, but they do move. LE must cross all their "T's" and dot their "I's" ....again and again and again, to present an air-tight case to a grand jury.

    I wished the detective good luck in solving the case as our phone conversation came to a close. His unsolicited words continue to fill me with a sense of encouragement that the pieces to the puzzle are coming together behind closed doors.

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    1. Honestly McKeeKitty, I hope so much you are right. The conflict I have between my heart and mind is tearing me apart. I want so much for Ayla to be well and reunited with her family. My cause and affect thought process has my mind telling me it may not turn out that way. I hope you are right and Ayla is Home Soon!

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    2. McKeeKitty, Maybe if busybodies like you stopped taking up LE's time with useless phone calls and ridiculous theories they might actually make some progress in this case and bring Ayla home to her family members. What a pain in the rear. I would never think up just calling them up and taking up their valuable time like that. Jeeesh.

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    3. Well, John, I can't read into the detective's words beyond that they gave me a sense of hope that this case will come to a close.

      Personally, I do not believe Ayla is well. I believe she is gone. But the detective's words gave me comfort that LE is closing in.

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    4. Anon, YOU don't know under what pretext McKeekitty was speaking to this investigator, so how can you possibly assume she was wasting LE's time??

      People who actually *WANT Ayla FOUND*, do NOT discourage others from contacting investigators, with even the SMALLEST thing...just on the OUTSIDE CHANCE that what they have to say MIGHT be valuable in some way...
      :/

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    5. I agree McKeeKitty. You have given me hope also that Ayla will be brought home soon. I am so happy that you shared the comment from the investigator. It is a ray of hope!

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    6. ...So, I guess what I'm aking YOU, "Anon",
      is:

      ✰ Why is it, that YOU DO NOT want Ayla to be found???

      [I will now commence with "holding my breath" as I await your thoughtful response...]

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    7. Anon 11:16...Wow! Do you think I just called to "chit-chat" with a MSP detective? Do you think you could have at least asked me the circumstances about the communication? Here they are, jerk-off:

      I called the WPD on March 4 (the first and only time I have ever called a tip line in my life, btw). The purpose of my call regarded a very cryptic, chilling message I found posted on a message board regarding an eyewitness account about Ayla's disappearence. I provided the dispatcher with the details and felt that I could at least sleep well.

      Much to my surprise, I received a message from Detective Adam Kelly of the MSP on Sunday, March 25. I was away, and didn't receive his message until April 8, Easter Sunday. We made contact, went over the details of the message I saw posted, and although he was already aware of the cryptic post, he thanked me for following up. I wished him luck in solving the case, and that is when he told me to "stay tuned...we're closing in!"

      You really have some gall insinuating that I'm a "busybody" that gets off on wasting LE's valuable time as a social chat line. Jeeesh.

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    8. It's the shit stirrer. Ignore it McKee.

      Delete
    9. McKeeKitty,

      Thanks for sharing this information with us. I have heard encouraging remarks from many surrounding this case, as well. The police are determined to bring Justice to Ayla.

      Delete
    10. Thanks VTLady and John. I'm furious with that audacious post by Anon 11:16. I'm furious, too, with people that waste LE's valuable time with dreams, feelings, tarot cards, Ouija Boards or who just feel a need to chat.

      I have to be honest. I really didn't want to make the call the night of March 4, because like many, I don't relish the idea of "getting involved." But I also needed to sleep well with myself. I showed my husband the cryptic posting, and he was the one that spurred me to make the call to the tip line (WPD). I forgot all about the matter as time passed, so I was surprised to hear from the MSP weeks later.

      Detective Kelly expressed his deep appreciation for coming forward, although the tip I submitted was already investigated. I refuse to feel bad for doing the right, responsible thing...see something, report something.

      Delete
    11. mckeekitty, if he seemed in a good mood/excited I would hope that would mean a positive conclusion and not the worst? I guess I would expect him to sound more somber if it was bad news coming?

      Delete
    12. Very possible, Abby.

      However, I provided all the details I knew to the dispatcher at the Waterville Police Department (FYI...the tip line goes directly to the WPD, not MSP). I was meticulous, and referenced where to find the questionable post. I figured LE would decide if it had any merit or not. As such, I did not expect a follow up call from the MSP weeks later.

      My gut tells me that there would be no need to follow up if LE determined that all is well with Ayla. Also, it is my understanding that more searches are currently being planned. I simply don't know how to interpret "stay tuned...we're getting close!" Close to finding Ayla well, or close to an arrest?

      Delete
    13. I would hope it would be the 1st alternative. I hope they haven't been working on Ayla's case so long that it is a case and not a baby anymore, where they would seem upbeat about an impending arrest. Hopefully that's not just wishful thinking on my part. Certainly, we're all staying tuned.

      Delete
    14. Anon 11:16,How can you think calling in a tip is being a busybody,Good thing the women that thought she saw Elizabeth Smart but wasnt sure decided to be a busybody,if not she wouldnt be back home with her family.Thank God for the busybodys out there.

      Delete
  21. Interesting theory John P.

    I also feel whatever happened happened in the basement (the blood evidence/existence would tend to support that). I do not feel whatever happened was due to some accident brought about by another child.

    I do believe at least one adult was present when whatever happened happened. I feel whatever happened was not premeditated (despite the LIP existence which seems to, at first blush, suggest nefarious intentions)

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    1. TLCox

      Thank you. I am so happy to see so many varying thoughts. I know in my heart someone is going to say something that is going to help LE Bring Ayla Home. Weather it is here on this site, another site, on the tip line, wherever.

      VTLady also had an alternate theory that JD and CR may have just used this scenario to gain the support of the others in the house. That is also a great theory.

      Delete
    2. Actually, I'm pretty sure that child-on-child violence would have only been a "convenient excuse", for what were ACTUALLY adult inflicted injuries, too.

      There IS some precedence for this excuse being used by Justin in the past, too:

      He blamed Ayla's facial bruises on ruffian toddlers beating Ayla up in the non-existent Chuck-E-Cheese ballpit.
      Anyone with a basic understanding of the physical capabilities/limitations, of toddlers in Ayla's age-range would realize, of course, that "babies" DO NOT "get into fights", or beat one another up, as older children sometimes do...

      BUT, his inane excuse was actually believed (at least initially) by Trista, as being "true"---enough so, that she headed down to the local Chuck-E-Cheese restaurant to complain to the manager!!

      Hey..it's a good tactic, if you can make it work:
      Blame those who cannot deny your accusations for themselves, as being the "guilty" party...
      Why NOT??

      I also recall a video coming to light where certain "ADULT" members of the DiP-clan, were actively egging on two of the toddlers to "fight" each other, while they filmed.
      Setting up their alibis, as to how "aggresive" the babies could be toward one another, perhaps??
      :/

      Delete
  22. The more I think about some of that theory happening it could be plausible, but the gun part. If someone is shot inside isn't it almost impossible to clean all of blood up. I mean the human eye wouldnt be able to see all of it to clean it up. The microscopic spray of blood would have covered everything.NickSmith

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    1. That's exactly right, NickSmith!
      And, as we KNOW:
      The DiPs were ~NOT~ able to clean up all the blood, since MSP has indicated the presence of enough of it to be of "concern", and consistent with what would be produced by more than a minor injury to Ayla.

      Delete
    2. I don't even understand why the few visible blood drops weren't cleaned... If you had a puddle (of anything) and were cleaning the floor, wouldn't you just clean the whole floor? Especially if it was BLOOD? That you were hoping to hide?! I can't understand their thinking.

      Delete
    3. NickSmith JMO but in my theory, I was thinking that a small caliber (.22 maybe) round could have entered the abdominal or another soft tissue area without exiting thus creating less spray but a wound large enough to pool the blood.

      Kit, The people there may have cleaned the whole floor in the bedroom, though sloppily. The blood drops were by the bottom of the stairs though. It may be that they thought they had cleaned all the evidence!

      Delete
    4. I agree John P. I just think they would have been a little less sloppy/lazy. I *think* I would have completely cleaned the entire floor, multiple times (not that you can ever really "cover up" such a crime, with all of LE's technology - although maybe there ARE ways).

      Delete
    5. I think down below, there is discussion on how simplistic the thinking had to be for this event to occur in the bedroom. With that level of forethought, I do not believe they were thinking at a level the rest of us would have been.

      Delete
    6. With large amts. of blood, such as pools of blood, you can soak and mop it all you want. Then you can mop it some more-remember that it thickens up, smears even worse. Then you can re-mop it some more, and what you are actually doing is rubbing and smearing traces of it even more than before. The only way (I guess), to get rid of it entirely would be running water, drain on the floor, to rinse it away-not the way most of us would be cleaning up a pool of it at home. Even if you used clean rags or sponges, or even paper towels, you are just rubbing it around, more smearing. I am sure that is how they see it with the Luminol-shows up as a clean-up job, as a not so good mopping job.

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  23. McKeekitty, can you say what you saw on the message board or were you asked not to?

    ReplyDelete
  24. John P This was a very interesting theory I haven't quite decided if I agree with it or not, but it's interesting to see other peoples theories. It's happens to be very different than the theories that are being discussed in my family. Don't worry if people give you a hard time about this that is exactly what this site is for to state your opinion and not being crucified for it. I admire you sir. Hope you get feeling better. NickSmith

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    1. I was not asked to be quiet about what I read, but since it is already known to LE, I see no need to rehash it here. And since the matter involves another poster, I wish to repect his/her privacy.

      The only point I was trying to make regarded the encouraging words made to me by Detective Kelly. That is what I wanted to share...that there may very well be light at the end of this tunnel.

      Delete
    2. Thank you NickSmith, you and the other commenters here have been very gracious to my scenario and bringing out viable alternatives. As for the few that wish to bash and dash, I was advised by a very good blogger, J4A, to scroll past. Thankfully the readers here have for the very large majority done as you have done, voiced thier differences and offered thier opinions! It feels great that my words are bringing so many logical comments and opinions to the discussion. It is all in a combined effort to Bring Ayla Home. Thank you

      Delete
    3. McKeekitty, can you contact me? emeraldeye@hushmail.com

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    4. McKeeKitty, I remember the conversation on the MS and why you called. I know that you don't want to get into details here, but did they sound, at all, like the lead went anywhere?

      Delete
    5. PB...I'm glad you caught the postings...as you know, it was quite the heated exchange. I didn't want to have to expose it all here.

      Detective Kelly told me that the MSP was aware of the MS postings, and my sense is that it went nowhere. I do believe it was thoroughly investigated...it just didn't have legs.

      Glad you caught it over at MS. It was wild.

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    6. McKeeKity- Yes, it was very heated- I understood and felt your frustration. I am glad that you called- because I really did not believe that the other person did. I thought he was full of it and wanted to get everyone going. Honestly, since then, I have had a small hope that it could have been possible tho.. maybe just maybe.. bummer that it wasn't.

      Delete
  25. I just wanted to thank John again for sharing his theory and allowing it to be posted here. It was a wonderful post using logic and deduction.

    We all have had different theories, they are just that-theories. We have only the evidence and info released by MSP and the media to go on as well as comments and statements from both sides of the family.

    As time goes by our theories are likely to change either because the passage of time makes them unlikely to be true (ie Ayla being abducted per drug debt owed etc-the likelihood of her being alive and not being spotted by someone/anyone in 4 months is hard to believe) As more evidence is released it may sway us and cause us to change our minds. We also are influenced by things said or not said from the families involved.

    I have discussed multiple theories/scenarios here and will discuss more by the time this case finally concludes. I welcome and appreciate all theories and opinions here, even those that believe Justin is innocent are welcome to discuss their reasoning here. No one should be ridiculed for expressing their feelings. It is those who come here and leave nasty comments and run that I have a problem with.

    I hope people will feel free to email me anything they would like published, as John did. I am very accessible and love hearing from you all. JusticeforAyla@yahoo.com

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    Replies
    1. Yes, thank you John. It takes a lot of guts to post an opinion like that and have everyone comment on it. I'm sure Ayla appreciates any help, especially since the paternal family is lying to LE.

      Now I must go to eat me sup down and beside my ye old hearth.

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    2. ⇑↑⇑↑⇑↑
      "Hearth"...Lol!!
      :D

      Delete
    3. LOL. Someone made their name "Home Is Where The Hearth Is", the other day.

      Delete
    4. Sorry Bride, I have no idea what you are saying. I just took 20 minutes for dinner in front of the fireplace and I come back and you are talking all funny?? LOL

      Delete
    5. J4A, thank you again for this oppertunity. The comments and scenarios posted today have given me much to ponder and apply to my scenario. The readers here are truely fantastic.

      Delete
    6. I hope more people will follow your lead and submit guest posts. You all are so insightful and intelligent and we always enjoy reading what you all have to say.

      I literally spit my drink out of my nose reading the posts about the hearth. lol

      Delete
  26. Riddle Me This, Batman...April 25, 2012 at 4:02 PM

    I believe the MSP denied that there was any blood SPLATTER when it was erroneously reported by WCVB out of Boston. Which means John P's theory of little Ayden accidently shooting Ayla doesn't jive. A gunshot wound would cause splatter.

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    1. Joker, I don't believe MSP "denied" splatter. Especially not to WCVB. They DID heavily deny that they (MSP) "stated" that Ayla was presumed dead. The reasoning for them correcting the news on that could be debated, but nonetheless, MSP def did not want that quote coming from them. McCausland wouldn't specifically state "splatter" to Nancy Grace.

      Delete
    2. I don't get WCVB here so if you could post a link I would appreciate it. As with Kit, the only interaction MSP had with Boston News to my recollection was the denial Kit mentioned above.

      Delete
    3. Agreed, Kit..
      While MSP spokesman, McCausland, refused to CONFIRM the description of "splatter" as a descriptor of the blood stain evidence, he ALSO failed to take the opportunity to outright REFUTE the description as being "false" or "erroneous", too...

      And, this is something the MSP has NOT been shy about doing, on occasions where someone has been publicly spouting outright lies, or misinformation in Ayla's case, previously.

      So, I wouldn't necessarily dismiss the "spatter" description as INCORRECT based on McCausland's failure to CONFIRM, alone.
      JMO/MOO

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    4. http://www.thebostonchannel.com/r/30334378/detail.html

      Revised story - title changed to "Hope Fades for Missing Maine Toddler" (in case you need to search, if link doesn't work). I can't find the original, probably due to them editing it (maybe it's out there on the internet somewhere).

      ***************

      Here is an article regarding the original:

      http://bangordailynews.com/2012/01/30/news/state/police-blast-boston-tv-station-for-irresponsible-inaccurate-ayla-reynolds-story-aired-monday/

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    5. Lol John! I don't remember having any interaction with Boston News. :)

      Delete
    6. LMAO, I am sorry Kit, I just reread what I wrote. I definately did not mean what I wrote there. I am glad you understood what I meant because that could be taken the wrong way. Man, I feel silly now! :D

      Delete
  27. The 9th 10th being a weekend bring in a lot of thought. Party at the dip house. Kids go play downstairs. Whose kids were all there? Loud music upstairs can't hear what's happening in the basement.

    Adults go downstairs to sleep after the party wears down and find Ayla in a pool of blood. They can't call for assistance because of their own conditions after just partying. They are scared to call sure that they will be blamed. Ed and cr believe their own children will be taken away for neglect. Pd protects Ed and Jd which in turn encompasses cr.


    Could the statement down in the house been a slip. He started to say she didn't meet her demise down in the basement but was worried of the statement and at the last minute switched to in the house. Trying to say she didn't meet her demise in the house. Accidentally letting the word down fall out.

    What time frame did Justin ask trista for Ayla ssn#. This will help identify if the policy was purchased early or later.
    I believe I read that trista said Justin started sending her text messages that he thought someone would kidnap Ayla around the 12th. This is logical time frame for them to clean up and start developing a plan as well start sending alibi text messages.
    Did trista ever text message Justin and say "well I just filed for custody today." I can understand a mad mom sending that jab to Jd after him not letting her talk to Ayla.
    This could have been verified by a call to DHS and caused a panic exceleration before they were "ready" for Ayla to be abducted.

    I also don't believe they entertained the idea of the mom taking Ayla as a possible "theory" til much later. All of the initial statements and even the 911 calls suggest he was projecting a stranger abduction story.

    I do question why ayla hasn't been found. I would theorize that the "plan" was for her body to be found and the assumption to be that the kidnapper killed her. This would allow for payout of the LIP

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    Replies
    1. anon, the 9th or 10th would also explain why PD was so vehement about the 16th being a "normal night" & "there was not a party". There may not have been on the 16th but what about the 9th?
      And what about the claim of a playdate for Ayla on the 16th with DT's son. Maybe the playdate was actually the 9th.
      Maybe this is two instances of parallel lying which could isolate the date to the 9th specifically? What if the questioned asked was along the lines of, "can you tell me what happened on Saturday?" The answer then describes the 16th and not the 9th. Just an observation. Your comment is appreciated.

      Delete
    2. John P,
      the play date is very sketchy, as one contradicting account which says DT is lying has already surfaced...he was not there, and told someone way before he did the interview...
      also, I think drugs are heavily involved as JD was allegedly a dealer, and that it was not a firearm, but more likely trauma or a drug overdose and resulting injury or bleed out near the bed
      EX:
      if they drugged her to get her to sleep on the bed, she might have fell off the bed and bled out while alone, or lay over the bed and threw up...this could conceivably have caused a large pool and spatters...they come back later and find her, or hear or cause the accident/injury as you hypothesized, but cover it up due to illegal drugs, and because either
      JD and CR, or just JD, the only adults with Ayla, are wasted...
      I do not think it was a gun or knife though, more like she must have fallen onto a sharp object, like a broken glass, or coke mirror or violence was involved. a
      I think that possibly ED, PD and LD were all told after the fact, but LD was not told until after the 911 call...I think the shed was where they stored cleaning materials, and that she was removed by the 15th...
      as far as blood spatter, I think the drops are indeed spatter from cleaning or the injury its self, but I am not sure about the location being at the stairs... can you please post the link where HT says the drops are at/near the stairs? I like your theory, very similar to mine in many aspects/conclusions as to timeline....ever evolving as well...good job getting peeps to break out the thinking caps :D

      Delete
    3. I agree about drugs playing a major role in all this, Emerald. That is the dark underbelly in this case.

      My thoughts and feelings keep jumping around from hour-to-hour. Right now, I can't get Derek Tudela out of head. It is clear to me that Heidi's "motherly" protection of Justin is a complete sham...her only interest is keeping Derek out of the Big House and in the fold of the "Neo-classical victorian overlooking the Kennebec."

      Delete
    4. Emerald, Thank you for your comments on my scenario. I did not know about the contradicting witness about the play date. I am wondering if this same person can confirm the small time drug dealer allegation against JD? I was leaning towards a drug deal which left the children alone in the basement but could not find verification so I chose the privacy angle which I felt would get me bashed less. I will look for the 3-4 drops by the stairs but it was somewhere in the timeframe of Justins 1700 word interview/farce.

      Delete
  28. I don't think Ayla accidentally offed herself nor do I think another baby did it. What are the odds that this baby is taken by her father and all within 2 mos.:
    1. He buys an LIP on her life
    2. abuses her
    3. she suffers an accident and dies wholly unrelated to abuse or the LIP?

    Instead, let's look at the possibilities that are likely:

    Abuse escalates
    murder for profit
    murder to spite Trista/solve problems associated with the responsibility of being a father

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Revenge and profit,

      Delete
    2. anon 2:43 & 4:29, your comment is exactly why this was posted. To allow people to voice individual thoughts and opinions. This site has always encouraged individual thought. J4A also posted her e-mail above for other commenters with differing scenarios to e-mail them for posting. It is my hope though that Ayla will be home soon and all SCENARIOS can be put in the trash (including mine) while we watch the evidence unfold at trial.

      Delete
  29. Excellent blog John P if your theory is correct it has probably "been burned" into Courtney's sons memory and when he's older he might just start to talk about it as in the case of the Powell boys drawing pictures of their mommy in the trunk and also speaking about it by saying mommy and daddy and us went for a ride but mommy didn't come back with us. And mckeekitty your words made my heart leap for joy. Thank you all for your posts I enjoy reading them and I agree with most of them except the trolls that is

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    1. Thank you, Chipmunk! Your analogy to the Powell boys, wow, it is chilling. I hope I am wrong in the end and Ayla comes home and Aiden has nothing to possibly remember.

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  30. I've maintained that Ayla went missing prior to December 16, and more likely the 9th when Trista first encountered a problem speaking with her daughter.

    With a full week unaccounted for prior to the 911 call, this case must be vexing to LE. It has been over four months and not even "a person of interest" has been named.

    I can't even say with certainty that LE has Justin, Phoebe, Elisha, Lance, and/or Courtney on their radar as suspects.

    We could be looking at a whole new cast of (likely shady) characters. Was there a party at the Dips the weekend of the 9th? Who was in and out of that house that week?

    I'm opening this Pandora's Box because LE needs to narrow down the perp(s) that ultimately harmed Ayla in that basement. There is NO question in my mind that the Dips and CR KNOW what happened to Ayla (thus the failed polys, skittish behavior, lack of cooperation, and a general "we-don't-give-a-shit" attitude), but it doesn't mean that any or all are suspects. LE says that the Dips and CR aren't telling all they know, and that their account of events don't pass the "straight-face" test, but that falls short of being suspect-worthy".

    I remain confident that LE is putting all the pieces together. But I fear this was a 50,000 piece jigsaw puzzle they were handed.

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    Replies
    1. McKee, wouldn't it be awesome if the witness Emerald mentioned could tell us a bit more about any drugs or what happened on the 9th & 10th. That Pandoras Box, is one I would like to see inside of.

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    2. John, I think they will, during witness testimony at trial...LE has the statements of this person, and the others that are giving info...as with LE, little tidbits float in every day...sparked by outrage, growing disgust and a great desire to see something good come from all this...

      Delete
  31. Well McKeeKitty they are suspects of at least the crimes of calling in a false report and obstructing justice in the case of your hypothetical.

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  32. Very Good John P.
    I was up last nite and I wrote, just in date / point form and I do agree that it happened the weekend of the 9th to the 11th. Hence ( is that as good as hearth ) the missed Dr. appointment on Monday the 12th.
    IMO There was an accident when they were all present and it was a bad one. Because of Justin going to seek custody and the previous injuries, they made a collective decision to not seek medical care, hoping that she would recover before he had to show up with her anywhere or to see Trista. He couldn't take her to a doctor, because it would have been game over for any chance of him getting Ayla at all. Because they all knew and did nothing, that ties them all together in criminal child neglect.
    Courtney and Elisha have children that would be taken away. Phoebe has Gabby and Elisha and Justin to protect.
    .....
    He's in Portland on the 15th to get the rest of his stuff,
    perfect opportunity to do the disposal.They were very interested in who the third person was who was with Justin. Probably to get info about where exactly they all were and when in Portland.
    ....
    Lance was asking Bob V about blood on the 24th of Dec, I think this is before anyone else mentioned that word, so Lance knows something else also.
    ..
    I can only tie Derek in with the play date which I do not believe happened, but it lent some credence to her being in the house on hte 16th. LIP ? Only if it was backdated.
    Once again, very well thought out and presented.

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    Replies
    1. Excellent logic and conclusion. Dates and references. I would be please to read a full scenario with your logic. J4A posted her e-mail if you could e-mail something to her.

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    2. the playdate is probably a lie. lance told someone the blood was his, before he ever spoke to bob vear.

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  33. mckeekitty: I like what you shared with us.

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  34. Unrelated to the previous posts.......Did JD really plant a peach tree in honor of Ayla? Is it possible that he planted it in a place where Ayla was hidden? just a thought as I strain my brain for answers.

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    1. IIRC, It was stated by a TLLOM member that the tree pictured in the J4A story belonged to the daughter of another TLLOM member. They later said it was a different tree planted at a different location without media present to preserve thier honoring of Ayla on her Birthday.

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    2. Anon 5:50: Absolutely! They are all guilty as sin for many criminal transgressions! Reporting a false abduction is just the tip of the iceberg in a litany of offenses.

      My question is that it has been over four months and there has been no person-of-interest named. Toss in my conviction that Ayla went missing prior to December 16, and LE has to cover much more ground than meets the public's eye. Too much emphasis on December 16/17...too little attention to December 8-15.

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  35. Yes they planted one for her birthday ,We dont know where.

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    1. Do we know it was a peach tree? I recall the TLLOM group denying that it was a peach, maybe because everyone was saying how egotistical it was of JD since his nickname is Peachy.

      Delete
  36. To ALL the great posters here on J4A. I wanted to say thank you to all of you for sharing your thoughts on my possible scenario. Your comments have given me lots to think about and hopefully, as Emerald said, we all got to put our thinking caps on For Ayla. Please keep seeking the Answers and Justice Ayla Deserves.

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  37. Your model makes a good argument for the small pool and the droplets.
    The dating of the LIP which we don't have would then cause me to add or subtract parts and motivations.

    The fake kidnapping is what mirrors backwards in time telling me something I can't quite import into the model, but you did include Justin's dirtying up of everyone involved. I could insert possibly even training Aiden to see and use the gun as a toy and then loading it when the moment was chosen. But the model sticks to the known facts and parties present by published information avoiding too much speculation.

    The model accounts for the pool and droplets very adroitly.

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    1. Thank you, I wish I could have used more of a factual basis for the LIP, but little has been confirmed regarding the dating and subsequent submission to Sate Farm.

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